This fall and winter are warmer! The strong El Niño phenomenon continues and typhoons will still form in winter

The Central Meteorological Administration today (31st) announced the "seasonal long-term weather outlook" for the next three months. The model predicts that the overall temperature in Taiwan will be normal to high, but from December this year to January next year, rainfall signals will increase near Taiwan. In addition, the strong El Niño phenomenon is expected to continue until next spring, and there may still be a chance of typhoons forming in winter.

The Meteorological Administration explained that in terms of climate, November to January next year is the late autumn and winter season in Taiwan. The cold and high pressure on the mainland continues to develop, and the temperature gradually drops with the seasons. When the northeast monsoon intensifies, it is often accompanied by frontal systems that affect the weather in Taiwan, which can easily cause rainfall in the northeastern and northern areas on the windward side.

The central and southern parts of the leeward side are in the dry season, and the chance and amount of rainfall are significantly reduced. In addition, there are still opportunities for typhoons to form in the western North Pacific in November and December. On average, there are 2.2 and 1.0 typhoons forming in November and December respectively, which are relatively few.

The Meteorological Administration pointed out that according to tropical sea temperature and atmospheric circulation data, sea temperatures in the tropical central and eastern Pacific continue to rise, and the El Niño phenomenon is expected to continue to develop in winter and remain until next spring. According to the forecast of the Meteorological Administration's dynamic model, the temperature in Taiwan is generally normal to relatively high. The high temperature signal is more pronounced in November, and the high temperature signal has a slight weakening trend from December to January.

In terms of rainfall, the area from the South China Sea to the Philippines is obviously dry. In November, there are wet signals from Japan and South Korea to the South China coast. Taiwan is located at the junction of dry and wet. From December to January next year, the wet signals along the South China coast extend to the southeast, and rainfall signals near Taiwan increase.