AfD achieves historic electoral success in Saxony-Anhalt state election

BERLIN — Germany’s far right claimed its biggest electoral success since World War II in Sunday’s regional vote in Saxony-Anhalt, with the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party advancing to the cusp of genuine power for the first time.

The state election is seen as a key test of whether the anti-immigrant, Russia-friendly AfD — now comfortably the most popular party in the EU’s biggest economy — can turn its electoral strength into a position in government.

The party itself is candid that it sees the eastern region of Saxony-Anhalt as a blueprint for its national ambitions, using the slogan: “It begins here.”

“We’ve made history. We’re taking back our country. It starts here in Saxony-Anhalt,” Ulrich Siegmund, the AfD’s candidate for regional premier, said at victory event in the city of Magdeburg where a crowd chanted his name — “Uli, Uli” — in unison.

The AfD is projected to win some 44 percent of the vote, a landslide on high turnout which would give it 39 seats in the regional parliament — just shy of the 42 seats needed to rule outright.

The political haggling over whether the AfD can wield power is now likely to center on whether it can come to an arrangement with the BSW, a populist-left party founded by a former member of East Germany’s communist party. The alternative is to persuade lawmakers from other parties to defect.

Sunday’s election is a catastrophe for the Christian Democratic Union of Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Its support crashed to less than 18 percent — a devastating implosion from the 37. 1 percent it scored in 2021.

The success of the AfD in this small state of just 2.1 million inhabitants has even sparked speculation about a potential Kanzlertausch, or chancellor swap.

Siegmund argued the result was a direct signal to Merz.

“Of course, it’s also a message directed at Berlin … Each day of having this man in the chancellery is one too many. That’s how people in Saxony-Anhalt see it, too.”

By 10 p.m., Merz was conspicuous by his absence, not having appeared to address the result.

Electoral maths

The electoral arithmetic of whether the AfD can govern is still coming down to the wire.

The AfD’s national co-leader Alice Weidel immediately hailed a “historic result” and said the party had “a very clear mandate for governing.”

But Siegmund will now need to determine whether he can drum up support from members of other parties — even on an individual basis — to take him to the 42-seat majority.

Weidel said her party “always has an outstretched hand” for coalition partners. Siegmund also said he was willing to cooperate with other members of the legislature either as “a caucus or an individual representative.”

The most likely partner is the populist BSW party of Sahra Wagenknecht, which has railed against the “firewall” against the far right as antidemocratic, and looks set to have about 4 lawmakers. But the AfD has also made overtures for CDU members to peel off and join forces.

The BSW has proposed installing a “nonpartisan” premier to lead the state government with “shifting alliances” in parliament. But the AfD is unlikely to agree to such an arrangement. It appears more likely is that the BSW could ultimately help the AfD’s lead candidate take power on a more informal basis.

Tino Chrupalla, the AfD’s other national co-leader, predicted the AfD would only get stronger if the other parties united against it to keep it out of power.

“Our position is clear. If the others think they know better and that this election result isn’t a sign of things to come, then they should go ahead [without the AfD], but the next election result will then be 50 plus,” he said.

Body blow to Merz

The result is a bruising blow for the CDU that has governed the region over the past 24 years. CDU General Secretary Franziska Hoppermann called it a”very difficult result” and an “overall defeat” for the Christian Democrats.

Sven Schulze, the current prime minister of Saxony-Anhalt, also conceded the severity of the defeat, particularly since turnout appeared to be very high.

“The winner of the election, the AfD, is now the strongest force in the state parliament of Saxony-Anhalt, and we in the CDU will have to deal with this result,” he said.

The fact that four in 10 voters in Saxony-Anhalt supported the AfD despite its state branch being designated a right-wing extremist organization by the state’s intelligence agency and reports that members of lead candidate Siegmund’s inner circle were part of an organization modeled on the Hitler Youth, speaks to widespread public distrust in mainstream parties, the media, and institutions in eastern Germany — a region that was under communist control during the Cold War.

The party achieved its best result since its founding in 2013 by vowing to deport migrants with a “remigration offensive,” to push for closer relations with Moscow — including by bringing back school exchange programs with Russia — to remove rainbow flags from schools, introduce a “baby welcome grant” of €2,000 for the first two children and €4,000 for each additional child. The party also pledged to reform school curricula to lesson material on Germany’s Nazi past in an effort to end what some of its politicians call a “guilt cult.”

However, the party’s success was apparently due less to its own pledges than to voters’ rejection of mainstream parties, particularly Merz and his conservative bloc. Only 9 percent of voters in Saxony-Anhalt approved of Merz’s performance, according to an ARD exit poll.

Saxony-Anhalt is the German state with the lowest average net income, and economic anxiety — over declining industry and rising energy costs — was a major factor motivating voters. Seventy percent said they were “greatly worried” that rising prices would prevent them from paying their bills, according to an ARD survey, while 58 percent feared they would be unable to maintain their standard of living.

Polls show that the AfD is also leading in the eastern state of Mecklenburg–Western Pomerania, where voters go to the ballot on Sept. 20. In Berlin, a traditionally left-wing capital where voters will go to the polls that same day, the AfD is also performing particularly strongly, polling at around 18 percent.

The Saxony-Anhalt result surpasses the AfD’s previous biggest breakthrough in the eastern region of Thuringia, where it won 32.8 percent of the vote in 2024. After that election, the CDU needed to form a minority coalition with left-wing parties.

This story is being updated.