AfD poised to make history in Saxony-Anhalt state election
Quick Look
Voters in Saxony-Anhalt head to polls on Sunday with AfD leading at 40 percent, potentially becoming the first far-right party to govern a German state since WWII if it secures an absolute majority; CDU trails at 23 percent amid coalition uncertainty and democratic protests.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
AfD has led in polls for months in Saxony-Anhalt, with CDU trailing. The state election is seen as a bellwether for AfD's national ambitions ahead of the 2029 federal elections.
Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt will head to closely watched polls on Sunday that could see the Alternative for Germany (AfD) become the first far-right party to take power at a state level since World War II.
Recent surveys place AfD at 40 percent, ahead of the centre-right Christian Democrats (CDU) at 23 percent.
AfD has led comfortably in the polls for months and has a chance at winning an absolute majority if several smaller parties fail to clear the 5 percent threshold to enter the German parliament. The results, however, are not guaranteed.
A CDU-led administration under incumbent state premier Sven Schulze is the most likely outcome if the AfD does not win a majority.
Weeks of coalition talks could follow the vote, depending on which parties surpass the 5 percent minimum.
AfD candidate Ulrich Siegmund, who was previously a member of the CDU, predicted gaining an absolute majority that would lead the anti-establishment party to national victory in 2029. He was named “Germany’s most dangerous man” by the influential magazine Der Spiegel.
“It was the others who erected the firewalls,” he told German tabloid Bild. “If no one wants to work with us, then we’ll just have to do it alone.”
An absolute majority would allow AfD to bypass mainstream parties’ “firewall” noncooperation policy, which the far-right party has already done at the local level.
For the AfD, the Saxony-Anhalt elections are a stepping stone towards its larger ambition: securing national power in the 2029 federal elections.
The CDU is led by deeply unpopular German Chancellor Friedrich Merz.
At a local campaign rally in Lower Saxony a week before the election, Merz urged other politicians to engage with AfD more effectively.
“We must address the issues at hand. We must also address our choice of words,” Merz said, referring to a statement by the AfD’s state leader in Saxony-Anhalt, Martin Reichardt.
Reichardt previously told the AfD’s youth organisation that Germany had become “a lazy, anti-social bum reeking of dope”.
Thousands of demonstrators gathered for a festival in support of democracy the night before the crucial election. Rally organisers estimated that between 15,000 and 20,000 people attended the demonstration.
Initial results are expected at about 16:00 GMT (6pm local time) on Sunday.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
AfD will win the Saxony-Anhalt state election but fall short of an absolute majority
Likely · Within days
Coalition talks will follow the election, likely involving CDU and other parties excluding AfD
Very likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Will AfD secure an absolute majority or fall short due to smaller parties clearing the 5 percent threshold?
- Which parties will surpass the 5 percent threshold and influence coalition negotiations?
- How will CDU and other parties respond if AfD wins a plurality but not a majority?
