African Leaders Extend Power Amid Succession Uncertainty

Power can be seductive, and many who possess it want to hold on to it for as long as possible. The leaders of China and Russia, for example, cleared the way for additional terms years ago, and in the United States, the president occasionally speaks of another run for office, even though the Constitution does not allow it.

From the perspective of Paul Biya, however, Chinese President Xi Jinping, Russian President Vladimir Putin and US President Donald Trump are still relatively new to office.

Cameroon's president has been head of state since 1982. In 2025, he began his eighth term, which is officially due to end on November 6, 2032, just a few months before his 100th birthday.

The 93-year-old has given no official indication that he intends to step down, and the position of vice president remains vacant. As a result, Biya is one of several African leaders who have taken further steps this year to secure their grip on power.

Paul Biya in Cameroon: A loyal leadership circle with one weak spot

During his 44 years in office, Biya has built a stable network of loyal allies that keeps the machinery of government running despite his lengthy absences.

The 93-year-old has now spent two and a half months in Geneva, Switzerland, continuing to issue decrees and make personnel decisions from abroad. In mid-June, his spokesperson denied rumors that Biya was receiving treatment in a hospital and stated that he was in good health.

"There is continuity, but that also means there is little momentum for reform within the government," Beverly Ochieng, senior analyst at consultancy Global Risk, told DW.

And while Biya's power apparatus has helped cushion the impact of the president's long absence, that does not necessarily mean the most influential figures on the ground are united. After all, a post-Biya era is now in sight, and several of his allies are rumored to have ambitions of succeeding him.

"When everyone is lining up to potentially succeed Biya, it also means that the elites may begin challenging one another," Ochieng said. Such rivalry, she warned, could lead to major disruptions, including the possibility of a military coup.

Analyst Levi Mboushou recently voiced similar concerns on DW's Africalink podcast.

"Everyone feels the fear and uncertainty, but no one dares to look directly at it because we all have to deal with this repressive regime. You see something, but you say nothing. That is the situation in Cameroon at the moment."

Yoweri Museveni in Uganda: Signs of a dynasty?

Ugandan President Yoweri Museveni is only slightly younger, both in age and years in office.

The 81-year-old has been president since 1986 and, like Biya, recently embarked on another term. His succession also remains unresolved, although his son, Muhoozi Kainerugaba, has recently attracted considerable attention as head of the military.

According to Beverly Ochieng, the dynamics in Uganda are complex, not least because military elites and the ruling National Resistance Movement (NRM) have their own internal power structures.

"Muhoozi has become the most visible figure primarily because he has a strong personality and enjoys the discreet backing of his father. His rise is not the result of support from either the NRM or the military leadership."

Kainerugaba is increasingly emerging as a political figure, including on issues beyond military affairs. In early July, he ordered the closure of several media outlets.

At the time, a source from an international foundation who requested anonymity told DW: "We are witnessing a transfer of power to the president's son."

A similar development has been unfolding for years in Equatorial Guinea, where Teodoro Obiang Nguema Mbasogo, who has ruled since 1979, appears to be gradually transferring power to his son.

Known by the nickname "Teodorin," he has served as first vice president since 2016 and now also controls the military.

In June, he announced the resignation of the entire government on behalf of his father. Observers interpreted the move as a sign that he is gradually becoming the public face of state authority.

Whether Museveni will actually arrange his succession during his lifetime remains uncertain.

Ochieng believes that, in the event of a sudden power vacuum, Uganda could either hold constitutionally mandated elections or follow a scenario similar to that seen in Chad in 2021.

Then-President Idriss Deby was killed in clashes with rebels. The constitution was suspended, allowing his son, Idriss Mahamat Deby Itno, to take power.

Emmerson Mnangagwa in Zimbabwe: Party before people

Zimbabwe also amended its constitution this year, making it far less likely that President Emmerson Mnangagwa could be voted out of office.

In June, both chambers of parliament approved changes extending the terms of parliament and the president from five to seven years. Even more fundamentally, the president will no longer be elected directly by the people but by parliament, where the ruling ZANU-PF party enjoys comfortable majorities.

In July, Mnangagwa signed the amended constitution into law. However, the opposition and some constitutional experts argue that a referendum should still be held. The government, by contrast, considers the constitutional amendment process complete.

"We are not surprised," Chiedza Mlingwa, deputy spokesperson for the Constitution Defenders Forum, said at the time on DW's Africalink podcast.

"The only thing one could be surprised by is the audacity, nothing else. We have observed this pattern since independence in 1980: ZANU-PF works to stay in power. The party does not believe in relinquishing power."

Beverly Ochieng noted that countries such as Togo and Cote d'Ivoire have implemented constitutional changes aimed at preserving power in recent years.

Meanwhile, in Senegal, a constitutional amendment is being discussed amid tensions between former allies at the top of the state, President Bassirou Diomaye Faye and Speaker of Parliament Ousmane Sonko, both of whom are significantly younger than the leaders discussed above.

"Even when legal safeguards exist, if they are not designed in a way that guarantees citizen participation, public debate, civil society engagement, or oversight by other institutions, then it becomes possible for unilateral decisions to be made at the highest levels of government," Ochieng said.

The weakening of institutions to allow individuals to remain in power, she added, is not an African problem but a global one.

Lucy Riley contributed to this article.

This article was originally published in German.