“If profits fall short of expectations, the AI craze may turn into a serious shock wave”

(Deutsche Welle Chinese website) On the occasion of the meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors of 191 member countries of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank to be held in Bangkok next week, IMF Director General Kristalina Georgieva said that the biggest impact on global well-being currently comes from conflicts in the Middle East and Ukraine. At the same time, the burden caused by excessive debt is also very serious, both for rich countries such as the United States, Japan, and Germany, and for low-income countries.

Another major challenge is the risk brought by the large-scale construction wave of artificial intelligence data centers. Georgieva noted that the boom has boosted stock prices and led to strong economic growth in many places, even as energy costs remain high due to the war in Iran.

Investment in artificial intelligence may exceed the relative scale of expenditures on building railways, power grids, and communication facilities.

"Whether you love it, hate it or fear it, artificial intelligence is quickly becoming a major driver of the relative wealth of some countries in the world economy," Georgieva said.

"A far-reaching shock wave"

The construction boom of artificial intelligence has not only brought high revenue to related companies, but also pushed up the inflation rate. But it is worth noting that despite the huge investment, there is still a long way to go before artificial intelligence can truly bring profits.

Georgieva said: "If earnings miss expectations, the leverage effect of very large companies and the increase in huge global holdings of U.S. stocks could turn this disappointment into a far-reaching shock wave."

Seven of the world's top ten economies in AI-related trade are in the Asia-Pacific region. China, India, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other places with strong technological capabilities are profiting from the artificial intelligence boom. But Georgieva noted that other countries failed to benefit, exacerbating economic inequality. At the same time, artificial intelligence has also pushed up energy demand, leading to further increases in the prices of key commodities such as fuel, fertilizer, and food.