What to do after AI stocks plummet? Nomura Investment Bank: Keep an eye on three major observation indicators

After the U.S. midterm elections, the market's doubts about the regulation of AI data centers, financing costs and investment payback periods have intensified. The major U.S. stock indexes have plummeted across the board, with the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index plunging by about 12%. Taiwanese stocks are under simultaneous pressure today (6th), and the market is turning gloomy. Nomura Investment Bank stated that the market's biggest concern is that if the construction of data centers is delayed due to regulatory and power restrictions, operators will still have to bear huge capital expenditures and financing costs, which may delay revenue realization and investment recovery, affecting subsequent investment capabilities. Short-term selling pressure will therefore be concentrated on highly rated AI supply chains. The "three major indicators" must be observed in the future. If the company's fundamentals remain sound, stock price corrections are expected to bring more attractive layout opportunities to the leaders of the AI ​​supply chain with competitive advantages.

Active Nomura Taiwan Select (00980A) fund manager You Jingde said that after the Democratic Party gained control of the House of Representatives and the Senate, the market began to re-evaluate the policy direction of data center power consumption, environment and construction costs. However, Trump still holds the power of presidential veto, and there are political barriers to promoting major controversial bills. Specific measures and implementation schedules remain to be seen. In addition, local governments have already had power consumption regulations for data centers, and some large cloud companies have also included relevant costs in their investment plans. Policies may change the construction location and schedule, but AI is related to technological competitiveness, and long-term construction needs are still supported.

You Jingde pointed out that the market outlook should observe "three major indicators", including cloud industry capital expenditure guidance, supply chain orders and shipment progress, and whether AI applications can continue to drive actual revenue. According to preliminary interviews by the Taiwan stock team, we have not yet seen sudden order cancellations or significant adjustments, nor have investment plans of large cloud companies been fully reduced. It is still necessary to distinguish between short-term delivery delays and weakening terminal demand. As AI extends from model training to inference and agent-based applications, the demand for computing, memory and high-speed transmission is expected to expand. Whether Taiwan's supply chain can convert technological advantages into orders and profits will be the key to evaluating the value of medium- and long-term investments.

You Jingde said that the layout will continue to focus on advanced processes and advanced packaging, testing, heat dissipation, ABF carrier boards, CCL/PCB, Netcom, optical communications and server slide rails, etc., giving priority to companies with high technical thresholds, solid customer relationships and actual profit support, and adjust the shareholding weight according to evaluation and order changes. It will still take time to restore short-term market confidence, but for industry leaders with solid fundamentals and more attractive post-retracement evaluations, we will continue to look for deployment opportunities.