AI data center construction boosts trucking demand but raises concerns about post-build drop-off

As America has an intense national debate about the cost of AI data centers and who stands to benefit, one often overlooked industry that has seen a boost in business from AI is trucking.

Sprawling data centers don't just sprout from fields, even if it seems that way. All the components that go into a data center, from HVAC systems to tubing and wiring and semiconductors, arrive primarily by truck (or train and then truck). And for a freight business that has been hurt by successive rounds of trade war tariffs and surging diesel fuel prices which hit an all-time high of $5.85 a gallon on Friday as a result of the Iran war, AI is providing a bit of a respite.

"Against that backdrop, AI and data center activity presents an opportunity for fleets," said Patrick Brennan, senior vice president of fleet management solutions provider Cox Fleet. Overall freight demand is still uneven, he said, but AI is providing some needed stability. Equipment-led growth, whether for data centers or defense and semiconductor projects, is inherently more freight-generating, he said.

Some niches within the trucking sector benefit more than others. The best-documented effect is the increased hauling of data center-aligned materials, which shows up in production indices and in individual carrier earnings commentary. Load-to-truck ratios have jumped as capacity tightening reaches this part of the market too.

"The effect shows up most in flatbed and heavy haul, where spot rates have hit multiyear highs this summer and capacity is tightest in construction-heavy markets," Brennan said. "Flatbed and heavy haul have been on an absolute tear since last year, and that's where demand from the buildout is most concentrated," he added.

Because site location decisions for these projects are often determined by factors including power and land cost, the arrival of AI is also reshaping trucking lanes, with much of that freight moving into markets that were never traditional freight hubs. "This reshapes routes as much as it adds volume," Brennan said.

The increase in large-scale construction projects is also creating additional demand for skilled transportation and fleet-related talent, and not just drivers.

"These projects require moving heavy equipment, generators, transformers, cooling systems, construction materials, and supporting infrastructure, which increases demand for CDL drivers, diesel technicians, fleet maintenance professionals, and logistics personnel," Brennan said.

All of this is causing a scramble for personnel in what was an already shrinking pool, resulting in longer hiring timelines for specialized positions, increased recruiting activity, and higher demand for maintenance capacity as fleets operate more frequently or add equipment to support project-related freight. And, of course, more miles driven equates to more maintenance that needs to be performed.

Smaller trucking companies get boost, but cash is tight

It's not just the big trucking companies that are seeing an AI boom, according to Jennifer Lockett, freight factoring operations manager at transportation financing firm altLINE. Smaller companies in the space are also seeing new business, but not without growing pains.

"Data center construction is creating new work for carriers, particularly those moving the massive transformers and generators needed to power these facilities, and large quantities of concrete and other construction materials," Lockett said.

The size and specialized nature of these loads can also create opportunities for carriers to take on new customers and routes. And for smaller carriers, these projects can mean more consistent freight and opportunities to expand into new lanes. "But they can also require additional trucks, drivers, and equipment to handle the increased volume. That can put pressure on cash flow, particularly when carriers take on larger customers or cover upfront costs for fuel, labor, and maintenance before getting paid," Lockett said.

Carriers will need more working capital to manage that growth and additional expenses. "Still, the bigger story is how much new freight activity these projects can generate for trucking businesses," Lockett said.

The new trucking business related to data centers is rippling through the entire freight ecosystem. As construction ramps up in rural areas, it can increase demand for fuel, construction materials, and new drivers, which creates more trucking activity throughout the surrounding region.

Janelle Griffith, global logistics practice leader at global risk management firm Marsh, said spikes in trucking traffic and routes are occurring now in Georgia and Texas.

"A lot of it is rural," Griffith said, pointing to research that shows 67 percent of planned data center developments are in rural areas and 39 percent of planned facilities are located in counties where there are currently none.

Current freight demand vs. post-construction drop-off

The impact goes beyond the surge in flatbed leasing, Griffith said, with the data center itself only one component of a much larger AI-trucking renaissance that is impacting broad swaths of the economy. "If we think about the supply chain, the data centers are not the end of the supply chain, but the center. They create rippling effects," Griffith said, adding that the effects spread to truckers, storage facilities, and warehouses. "Every phase of the data center itself creates opportunities," Griffith added.

Even when equipment and components can be brought in by rail, they still usually have to be trucked from the train terminal to the site. "A lot of things used to build data centers move via rail, truck takes it from destination to building, doesn't reduce demand, just reduced distance," said Kyle Roberts, vice chairman of industrial & logistics/capital markets at commercial real estate advisory firm Newmark Mountain West. He added that the short haul aspect of a lot of the data center components has especially helped the LTL segment, which has been soft for some time, most notably seen in the 2024 bankruptcy of Yellow Trucking.

But industry experts also express caution about a potential overreaction to the AI trucking boom. Even with the new business, communities need to be careful about rushing to redo their entire infrastructure to accommodate freight since much of the AI data center-related business has an expiration date.

Roberts said there is an "extraordinary drop off" in truck traffic to a data center once it is built. Compared to a typical 200,000-square foot warehouse or distribution center with 80 dock doors and two turns per day, a data center, once built, has a fraction of the truck traffic.

"Unlike warehouses that support large retailers or other physical goods delivery, data centers required comparatively little logistics support after they have been built," said Kyre Lahtinen, associate teaching professor of finance at Wake Forest University. Communities experiencing a boom in trucking should be cautious about how much infrastructure they build out and whether demand will persist after the construction phase has passed, he said.

For now, the AI ecosystem is so active now that truckers just move onto the next job.

"There is a massive ecosystem that sits around, all of those components have trucking demands," Roberts said. "It's a very positive impact," Roberts said.