Alberta votes on possible secession from Canada

Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney is not to be envied. For more than a year he has been fighting against US President Donald Trump's tariff policy and defending his country against Trump's desire for annexation. Even if Carney has the majority of Canadians behind him, the economic problems caused by Trump's tariffs are causing separatist forces to grow.

In the French-speaking province of Quebec, the separatist Parti Québécois recently regained power for the first time since 2014. She is aiming for another independence referendum in the province as soon as Trump is no longer in the White House.

Young separatist movement in an economically strong region

While separatists are traditionally strong in Quebec, the secession movement in Alberta is relatively young. And unlike Quebec, oil-rich Alberta with its major cities Calgary and Edmonton is economically very successful, as Darrell Bricker, head of the polling institute Ipsos in Toronto, explains. “Alberta has the fastest-growing population in Canada and is the engine of Canada’s economic growth,” says Bricker.

It was only the restrictions during the Corona period as well as the environmental and climate policies of former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau that led to the separatists becoming stronger, explains pollster Bricker. The latest polls show that around one in four people eligible to vote in today's referendum will be in favor of an independence referendum.

That's a surprising number, considering that both Canada's Prime Minister Carney and the conservative head of government of the province of Alberta, Danielle Smith, are staunchly opposed to secession. However, the Conservative leader is using the referendum as leverage against Carney to get his government to do more for Alberta.

Carney warns of Brexit lessons

This reminds many in Canada of former British Prime Minister David Cameron and his Brexit referendum. Which is why Mark Carney, then head of the Bank of England, warned the separatists against "a dangerous illusion": "I saw firsthand that many Brits had hoped for a better negotiating position with Brussels back then. Now, ten years later, they are trying hard to undo what they actually got back then."

The secession movement received support on social media through Russian influence and even more directly from US President Trump and the MAGA movement. The separatist leaders were received three times at the White House and the US State Department.

Promise against secession

Carney, who is himself from Alberta, has gone on the counteroffensive in recent weeks. While his predecessor Trudeau rejected new investment in the oil and gas industry on climate grounds, Carney promised to build a new oil pipeline from Alberta to the Pacific, a high-speed rail line between Calgary and Edmonton and the construction of thousands of new homes.

None of this will work “if we are divided,” said Carney. "Great things cannot be built across dividing lines. We have to be strong and together we are stronger."

Even if the result of the referendum is not legally binding today, Carney has to worry that the centrifugal forces in his country will increase.