Analyst Benjamin Cowen Admits He Was Wrong With His Bitcoin Prediction

Benjamin Cowen, one of the closely followed analysts of the cryptocurrency market, made a remarkable post after Bitcoin's sharp rise above 85 thousand dollars. Cowen, who has been keeping the possibility of a new bottom in Bitcoin on the agenda for a long time, spoke briefly and clearly this time:

"I was wrong. I won't make excuses. I deserve to be made fun of."

Behind this statement by Cowen is the significant weakening of the Bitcoin scenario he has been advocating for the last few months.

He saw the possibility of a new bottom as 65 percent

Cowen, founder of Into The Cryptoverse, took a cautious approach in the second half of 2026, especially based on Bitcoin's four-year cycle.

In his assessment on September 8, the analyst evaluated the probability that the lowest level of the cycle in Bitcoin had not yet been seen as 65 percent. It gave a 35 percent probability that the low level was over. Cowen also thought that Bitcoin could test $53,000.

Cowen's main thesis was that Bitcoin could move downward again in the last part of the year, similar to the price behavior seen in US midterm election years such as 2014, 2018 and 2022. For this reason, the analyst was monitoring the September-October period especially closely.

Cowen had previously said that the accumulation period for Bitcoin started as of July 1, and stated that a regular buying strategy might be more logical for investors than trying to fully catch the bottom level. However, the possibility of a final sharp decline in the fourth quarter continued to be on the table.

The conditions he said came true

What made Cowen's last statement more remarkable was the technical evaluation he made just a short time before Bitcoin's rise.

When Bitcoin rose to around $81,280, Cowen stated that it was too early to say that the bear market was over. According to the analyst, the important thing was that Bitcoin surpassed its previous peak, formed a higher peak, and closed above the 50-week simple moving average on the weekly chart.

Cowen stated that the realization of these conditions would be an important sign that the downward trend is weakening. Conversely, he argued that the bear market could continue if Bitcoin encounters resistance and forms a lower peak.

As of the weekend, Bitcoin fulfilled one of the critical conditions that Cowen followed. The price closed the week at $81,159 while remaining above the 50-week moving average at approximately $78,788. This was Bitcoin's first weekly close above that average since November 2025.

Then the rise accelerated and Bitcoin reached its highest level in eight months, rising above $85,000 on Monday. Thus, the price rose above the area that has been working as resistance in recent months.