'Frightening' warning from Antalya to the world: El Nino will break new records

At COP31, which continues in Antalya, warnings about the dangers that climate change may cause are coming one after another.

According to the 2026 Climate Status Update Report announced by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the 2015-2026 period was the hottest period on record. In the January-September period of this year, the global average surface temperature rose approximately 1.47 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

EL NINO IS INTENSING

The report stated that El Niño, which has increased its effect since August, is expected to reach record levels by December. It was emphasized that El Nino will increase the risk of extreme heat, drought and heavy rainfall until 2027. It was noted that the global average sea level reached the highest point in satellite records that started in 1993, and the ocean temperature broke records for 10 consecutive years. The report pointed out that approximately 90 percent of the excess heat held by greenhouse gases in the atmosphere was absorbed by the oceans, and stated that the world was accumulating more and more heat.

THE OCEAN IS PUSHING HEAT

WMO Secretary General Celeste Saulo said that El Niño does not add new heat to the planet, but causes the heat accumulated in the ocean to be released into the atmosphere. Stating that the oceans are at the warmest level ever measured, Saulo said, "This 2026-2027 El Nino is very high. It is different from any El Nino we have watched." Saulo noted that they estimate that the sea surface temperature in the Tropical Pacific could reach approximately four times the El Nino threshold between November 2026 and January 2027.

Emphasizing that extreme weather events are becoming more severe, Saulo stated that heat waves, tropical cyclones and heavy rains cause serious losses of life and property. Stating that the ice and rock collapses and sudden floods in Nepal reveal the dangers posed by climate change in mountainous regions, Saulo said that tens of thousands of people will die due to extreme heat in Europe in 2026, and dangerous heat waves will be experienced in large parts of India, Pakistan, Asia and North America.

HUMAN IS RESPONSIBLE

Warning that heat-related deaths may increase as summer begins in the southern hemisphere, Saulo stated that the rise in sea level threatens 900 million people living in low-lying coastal areas. Emphasizing that human activities are responsible for the climate crisis, Saulo said, "The real character at the center of this story is not the atmosphere, land, ocean or glaciers; it is us. You and me, our families and the societies we live in."