New York and London | Financial Times Anthropic is pushing ahead with its high-risk IPO even in the midst of a brutal technology sector debacle. The Claude manufacturer is willing to accept a valuation well below the US$2 trillion (R$11 trillion) expected by its most optimistic investors.
The startup continues with plans to carry out an IPO (initial public offering) before the Thanksgiving holiday in the United States, later this month, according to several investors in the group. According to them, the company expects to raise between US$80 billion (R$440 billion) and US$100 billion (R$551.2 billion), with a valuation between US$1.25 trillion (R$6.9 trillion) and US$1.75 trillion (R$9.6 trillion).
That would be an improvement over Anthropic's current $965 billion (R$5.3 trillion) valuation, but it would be well below the twice the value that investors predicted just a month ago.
"In my assessment, they will set a very conservative price, say US$1.5 trillion (R$8.2 trillion), and go up from there," said a major investor in the company. Others involved in the operation predicted a lower valuation, of around US$1.3 trillion (R$7.1 trillion).
The lowering of expectations is part of a broader reckoning in the technology sector, amid concerns about rising financing costs and rampant spending plans by AI companies. These fears have led investors to sell AI-related stocks, while lenders have backed away from high-risk projects.
Democrats' sweeping victory in the US midterm elections this week, in part underpinned by promises to make it harder to build data centers, has dramatically accelerated the sell-off.
American stocks lost US$3.2 trillion (R$17.6 trillion) on Thursday (5), with the Nasdaq, heavily concentrated in technology, plummeting 6.4% on concerns about a slowdown in the expansion of AI infrastructure. The index recovered part of its losses this Friday (6).
"AI shares are being sold off, which makes it harder for Anthropic to go public and means less money for investment, which leads to further selling," said analysts at market research group Vital Knowledge.
Rival OpenAI has had difficulty completing its own private fundraising round, reducing the targeted valuation from US$1.4 trillion (R$7.7 trillion) to US$1.25 trillion and the round size from US$30 billion (R$165.3 billion) to US$20 billion (R$110.2 billion).
The rampant enthusiasm for AI companies that has driven U.S. stock markets to new heights over the past three years is waning, creating challenging conditions for Anthropic's IPO.
The likelihood of Anthropic postponing the IPO has increased in prediction markets. However, according to more than half a dozen of the company's investors, it still intends to go public, even if CEO Dario Amodei has to accept a price reduction to do so.
One of Anthropic's early investors says the company should look at it like any other fundraising: a means to an end. He added that if the market cannot see the value of the company, it does not deserve to make money.
Anthropic's financial data for the third quarter revealed revenue growth that slowed, but still recorded an increase of almost 50%, to around US$17 billion (R$93.7 billion). The company plans to spend US$900 billion (R$4.9 trillion) on computing capacity and infrastructure in the coming years.
The company omitted from its prospectus the most recent annualized revenue rate, which projects recent performance and expectations about continued customer contracts. However, this value is now around US$81 billion (R$446.4 billion), compared to approximately US$65 billion (R$358.2 billion) at the end of July, according to several people with knowledge of the matter.
This number should encourage investors concerned about whether Anthropic would be able to continue growing in the face of increased competition from OpenAI and Chinese rivals. The Wall Street Journal had previously reported that annualized revenue had exceeded US$80 billion (R$440.9 billion).
JPMorgan is expected to host potential Anthropic investors at an “information session” on November 13.
Anthropic investors hope that its IPO will be driven by so-called compulsory buyers, including index funds and large asset managers, who currently do not own shares in the company, but who, in practice, will be forced to buy them shortly after the IPO.
The biggest IPO in history was Elon Musk's SpaceX, which debuted on the stock market with a valuation of US$1.78 trillion (R$9.8 trillion) in June this year. Amodei has little interest in surpassing Musk, according to several people familiar with his thinking.
However, Anthropic's huge spending commitments increase pressure for it to raise more funds. The group has almost US$150 billion (R$826.8 billion) in cash and liquid investments on its balance sheet and intends to raise an amount large enough to never need to sell a stake again, according to sources familiar with the company's strategy.
Anthropic declined to comment.
