(Central News Agency, Washington, 14th, Comprehensive Foreign News Report) The leaders of the United States, China and Russia will hold a trilateral leaders' summit during the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation Conference (APEC) in China on the 19th. It is expected that the nuclear weapons treaty and the United States' war against Iran will be priority topics for discussion, but the Ukraine issue is unlikely to be mentioned.
The White House confirmed yesterday that US President Donald Trump will attend the summit in Shenzhen from November 18th to 19th. Trump will hold the first trilateral meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The White House said the talks would focus on nuclear weapons proliferation. However, it comes at a time of intense global turmoil, including Russia's war with Ukraine, the U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, and ongoing trade tensions between Washington and Beijing.
Simon Mabon, a professor of international politics at Lancaster University in the UK, told Al Jazeera: "I think we're going to see some pretty eye-catching photo-ops, accompanied by a lot of grandiose rhetoric from Trump."
However, he also pointed out that these three parties "cannot bring the conflict in Iran or Ukraine to an end, whether they work together or separately."
What do these three major powers want? What are the possible outcomes of the talks? Here's what's known so far:
●New Nuclear Weapons Treaty
One of the primary issues of concern to Russia and the United States is the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty (New START), which expired in February. This treaty, first signed in 2010, sets an upper limit on the size of the strategic nuclear arsenals of the United States and Russia.
Russia currently has the largest number of nuclear warheads in the world, followed by the United States and then China, which is rapidly expanding its nuclear arsenal.
Russia has proposed extending the treaty after it expires, something Trump has previously rejected, instead demanding a "new, improved and modern" agreement that would include Beijing. However, it is understood that China is not enthusiastic about joining an agreement that it did not participate in the formulation of.
A senior Trump administration official told Reuters that the conversation would begin with the issue, but "we don't expect any agreement to be reached."
●U.S.-Israel war against Iran
Officials said the war the United States and Israel launched against Iran on February 28 would also be discussed. Although all-out attacks have now ceased, the conflict remains mired in a stalemate.
More than 100 days after the war broke out, the Strait of Hormuz, a key waterway, remains closed. Oil and natural gas prices remain volatile as ships transiting the strait continue to face threats from Iranian attacks and mines. Before the war, one-third of China's crude oil supplies passed through the strait. The conflict has also dampened demand for Chinese exports.
Russia, on the other hand, has benefited from rising energy prices; it has also benefited from Washington's recent relaxation of sanctions at a time when energy supplies are tight, especially diesel shortages.
●China-US trade rivalry
The trade war and the race for control of artificial intelligence (AI) computing chips are increasing tensions between Beijing and Washington.
Trump imposed a 145% tariff on China last year. Not to be outdone, Beijing retaliated by imposing a 125% tariff on U.S. imports. In addition, China has restricted the export of rare earth minerals used to make advanced chips and other technology products, further increasing tensions between the two sides.
After Trump and Xi Jinping met in South Korea and the United States, the two countries have lowered tariffs and reached several agreements. However, the recent scandal at chip giant Nvidia has led to the United States accusing China of spying on Nvidia's former CEO Jen-Hsun Huang. Beijing denies the accusation.
●Will the war in Ukraine be discussed?
The possibility is extremely low. A U.S. government official told reporters that Trump would not mention the matter, although Kremlin officials have previously suggested that the conflict could be a topic of discussion. China, a Russian ally, says the war in Ukraine is a European matter.
U.S. officials also pointed out that Washington is promoting peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, but China has not really participated in this negotiation process, "so it seems inappropriate to discuss the Ukrainian issue on that occasion."
●Each one’s own calculations
What do the parties hope to gain from this meeting? Analysts pointed out that for Putin, this meeting can provide a photo opportunity that is beneficial to his image and a stage to show his strength, while downplaying the issue of the Ukraine conflict.
Alexander Bratersky, a Moscow-based journalist and political analyst, told Al Jazeera that the meeting would give Putin the status of "top of his peers" and show his country that he can influence the European security architecture after the war in Ukraine.
As for Beijing, China has been actively pushing to defuse the U.S. war on Iran because its own energy supplies have been affected.
China also wants to avoid being drawn into a nuclear arms treaty that it did not participate in the creation of. China's Foreign Ministry said last month that requiring China to join "so-called trilateral nuclear disarmament negotiations at this stage is neither fair, reasonable nor realistic".
U.S. officials said Trump would prioritize pushing China and Russia to join a new nuclear weapons proliferation treaty. White House spokesperson Olivia Wales said Trump will discuss reducing the number of nuclear weapons around the world. Experts believe that Trump may use this to show diplomatic influence.
Professor Umemoto said: "I think this meeting will be more of a showmanship. Trump is playing the role of an international statesman rather than a peacemaker."
Experts pointed out that Trump's Republican Party suffered a heavy defeat in the midterm elections last week, which may weaken his negotiating leverage, because the new Democratic-led Congress is likely to be more determined to support Ukraine.
●Is this the beginning of the new Yalta Conference?
Pyotr Tolstoy, chairman of the Russian Parliament's Foreign Affairs Committee, said this could lead to a "new Yalta conference."
In 1945, General Secretary of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union Joseph Stalin, US President Franklin D Roosevelt, and British Prime Minister Winston Churchill held a conference in Yalta, then part of the Soviet Union, to divide Germany and establish the United Nations, which was regarded as a blueprint for a new world order.
