Arrests and investigations as Serbia begins post-election clean-up

Air Serbia flight JU134 from Belgrade to Moscow on November 3 was already deep in Lithuanian airspace when the crew received instructions to return to the Serbian capital.

Among the passengers were three senior figures from the regime of former President Aleksandar Vucic: Aleksandar Vulin, former defense and interior minister and former head of Serbia's Security Intelligence Agency (BIA), Dusan Bajatovic, long-serving director of state-owned gas company Srbijagas, and Nenad Popovic, a minister without portfolio.

All three are well known in Serbia for their close ties to Moscow and for controversies, including allegations of corruption and abuse of public office.

According to unofficial reports published by several media outlets, the plane was ordered back because of a security breach: Vulin had allegedly boarded without undergoing the mandatory security screening.

Since 2023, Vulin has been under US sanctions over what Washington described as "engaging in corrupt and destabilizing activities that undermine the rule of law in the Western Balkans."

Unusual episode

Vulin told the media that he was travelling to Moscow to discuss extending a gas agreement with Russia.

Bajatovic, however, said he did not know why Vulin and Popovic were travelling to Moscow and denied that the two would attend the scheduled meetings on gas supplies.

The incident might have remained nothing more than an unusual news item had it not occurred at a time when Serbia is undergoing a major political transformation.

Judicial developments unfold at remarkable speed

Just nine days earlier, on October 25, the student-backed list won a landslide victory over the Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) in the parliamentary election, ending 14 years of political dominance by Aleksandar Vucic and the SNS, who maintained close relations with Moscow.

Although the new majority has yet to take control of any levers of power, the days after the election brought a series of developments that would have seemed unimaginable just a few weeks ago.

Arrests, new criminal proceedings and the reopening of previously unresolved cases began to unfold at remarkable speed. Some of these cases strike at the very foundations of the system built during the SNS years in power.

"This paints a sad picture of the Serbian prosecution service," prosecutor Bojana Savovic told DW.

Savovic sees the sudden action on the part of prosecutors as an attempt to ingratiate themselves with the new authorities.

"With these actions, they are showing what they could have done but were unwilling to do until just ten days ago," she told DW. "I hope this speed of action will not come at the expense of the quality of indictments and that these are not personal vendettas within the old regime."

Allegations of vote-buying and high-level corruption

Prosecutors have also launched a series of investigations into suspected electoral manipulation, corruption and abuse of public office.

Four people were arrested on suspicion of vote-buying in Novi Sad. Six others were detained in Mali Zvornik on suspicion of helping citizens from Bosnia and Herzegovina register their residence in Serbia so they could vote.

One of the most high-profile cases is the arrest of Davor Macura, the owner of Alta Bank, who is suspected of illegally accessing the bank's vault and removing the equivalent of about €383 million ($430 million).

His arrest came just days after the National Bank of Serbia revoked Alta Bank's license and initiated bankruptcy proceedings. Macura has been publicly associated with the SNS, while his bank had significant business dealings with the state and a large number of Russian clients.

Senior police officials, the head of the Republic Hydrometeorological Institute and several managers of public companies have also been arrested over suspected abuses of office and rigged public procurement procedures.

Alleged destruction of documents

Students and representatives of the new political majority are demanding investigations into corruption cases that have remained unresolved for years.

Their message is that no one should be above the law and that prosecutors and courts must do their jobs — or be held accountable for failing to act.

"When you want the rule of law and when you want something to be done, it is possible. Our regulations allow for it. But it was obvious that there were people obstructing the entire system, putting cases in drawers and leaving them unresolved," Tanja Arsic, an incoming MP from the Students' List, told DW.

In the days after the election, however, reports and video footage emerged that suggested official documents may have been removed or destroyed in state institutions and public companies.

On October 29, Prosecutor General Zagorka Dolovac responded by issuing a binding instruction to all chief public prosecutors to prevent the destruction of official and other records.

The Students' List also called on employees in state institutions and the media to report any destruction of documents to prevent what they called abuse by the outgoing authorities during the transition of power.

Savovic points out that even an attempt to destroy official records is punishable by law.

How high up will investigations reach?

But will the institutions really investigate those who were once at the very top of Serbia's political power structures?

Former President Aleksandar Vucic said he is not afraid of being arrested and that no evidence of financial wrongdoing will be found against him.

"I don't sign or do anything when it comes to money, and nothing can be found in that regard," he said.

But accountability is not just about who signed a document. It is also about establishing who made the decisions, who gave the orders and who wielded the real power to influence the deals now under investigation.

"It would be tragic if the biggest players, whose arrests are expected, were prosecuted without sufficient evidence. Or if they were charged with something far less serious than what they actually did," said Tanja Arsic.

The real test is yet to come

Bojana Savovic makes a point of saying that ultimately, the success of the prosecution service won't be measured by the number of politically popular or populist arrests that are made, but by final convictions and the permanent confiscation of assets acquired through crime.

Arsic agrees and warns that conducting high-quality investigations and gathering robust evidence must take precedence over speed.

"The prosecution must not bring indictments if there is not enough evidence. That would be disastrous," she said. "If things are rushed just to achieve a result, only for the cases to end in acquittals because the prosecution failed to prove the charges against people who were at the top of the government — that would be even more disastrous."

But will that be possible within the existing structures? Savovic is not convinced that it will.

"For decades, people whose only qualification was blind obedience, reading the political climate and self-censorship were promoted in the prosecution service and the courts. Without fundamental changes in the judiciary, the police and the security structures, I see no possibility of a substantial and lasting transformation of society," she said.

The real test will come in the courtroom. The verdicts in these cases will show whether Serbia is finally breaking with its old system of power or merely replacing one set of power brokers with another.