Fascinating, isn't it, that for all that Donald Trump has got away with, it's arguably the cost of fuel that's finally led to an absolute rout in the midterms.
So many Americans held their noses at so many other things, but in the end his own decision-making on Iran will haunt the rest of his presidency.
And it's not so much the broken promise on ending the forever wars: it's a rebirth of the old phrase “it's the economy, stupid” that our own government will note. In the end, it transcends just about everything else.
In the US, the cost of petrol is much lower than in Australia generally, but gasoline is up 40% since last year. The price of diesel has jumped a massive 71%, hitting record highs in almost all states, since the start of the war in Iran and the disruption of shipping through the strait of Hormuz.
This has whacked families, farmers and industry in key battleground states, affecting primary producers and manufacturers – some of whom are already hurting due to the variable impact of Trump's tariffs on Chinese trade and fertiliser prices.
These are the very people I spoke to when I covered Trump's first administration: everyday Americans prepared to overlook their misgivings about his character in favour of what they thought he could deliver in the form of American exceptionalism.
Yet here we are.
Of course, that's not the only factor. The extraordinary Senate result in Texas, with its big Latino community – last won by a Democrat 38 years ago – is likely also tied to a backlash against Trump's hardline immigration policies and weaponisation of ICE. Reflecting that, Gina Hinojosa has become the first Latina governor of Texas in a history-making moment.
It appears that Trump's own actions on immigration and the economy have sent those who swung to him in 2024 back where they came from in droves.
The result is a slap for Elon Musk too, the biggest individual donor in the midterm cycle, who spendt US$446m trying to influence the results (mostly in Texas). The diversity of those elected, in ethnicity, sexuality and gender is another rejection.
From North to South Carolina to the bellwether state of Ohio to Kansas, voters have punished Republicans, delivering both the House and the Senate to the Democrats.
The cost of living has fed increasing anger in the US over both real and perceived government corruption and the widening wealth gap, the power of big tech and the rollout of datacentres. The issues are very similar to those dominating the political agenda here in Australia.
As Texas senator-elect James Talarico said, accepting victory: “It's not left versus right, it's top versus bottom.”
Hard agree.
So, the Australian political class should now be considering both the trendline that could apply to Australian elections, as well as how to deal with a castrated Trump administration.
Should we reassert our values now with Trump, or just wait it out? After all, he'll be gone for good soon, won't he? At least that's the theory.
Beyond that, “unfairness” – emblematic in rising interest rates – will hurt Labor if they don't find some other nimble policy levers (for example capped price childcare, cheaper tertiary education and slowing down datacentre development) to reduce inflation before they're also on the receiving end of a slap from the electorate. Also, spending and saving where everyday Australians expect it – not where vested interests and opportunists demand it and not to reward or punish individual electorates.
US midterm elections commonly go against whoever is in the White House. That's not news. But while Trump's already pointing fingers, he was the one who told voters to behave as if he was on the ballot, and by any measure this is a repudiation of his presidency.
It will drastically influence the rest of it. What that looks like is difficult to predict, given his lack of respect for boundaries. And addicted as he is to the main character energy that has come with his two terms as president, this reality TV show could yet have some way to run. I doubt it's the end of Trumpism as we know it.
So far during Trump's second term, with the trifecta of the White House and majorities in the House of Representatives and the Senate, the president has been off the leash. The next two years will be very different.
But as I wrote in these pages a couple of weeks ago, even without Congress, Trump remains commander in chief of US armed forces, with all the power that comes with that. He also has veto power on congress that can only be overridden by a two-thirds majority in both houses.
Without the House or the Senate, the White House is headed for legislative gridlock, and you can expect Democrat-led legal action against the Trump administration and all the two-way rancour that will come with it.
Democrats have been quick to claim that Americans chose decency and kindness in the way they voted at these midterms.
Immediately after the result, Trump told the New York Times, “We'll work with the Democrats, and we'll, you know, look forward to working with them. We'll probably work something out.”
Let's see how that goes. Truth Social tells a different story.
