Australian farmers face mixed fortunes as livestock prices soar amid regional drought disparities

Graeme Golder has been farming "for a day or three" and his instinct to lean further towards sheep has delivered a record payday this season.

The Riverina farmer and his son, Chris, sold first-cross ewes for what is understood to be an Australian saleyard record of $620 a head at West Wyalong.

They sold 600 ewes for an average of $607 a head.

Mr Golder said the sale price made it a no-brainer to turn some of their traditional cropping land over to run more sheep at their Temora property.

"Our boys, especially Chris, he knows which side his bread's buttered on," Mr Golder laughed.

While the Golder family's prospects are aligning, elsewhere in New South Wales, farmers are struggling with dry conditions.

Commodity forecaster ABARES says NSW winter crop production will fall 30 per cent to 13.1 million tonnes in 2026–27, with stronger conditions in central and southern regions partly offsetting poor prospects in the north.

Strong livestock prices are also being underpinned by a shrinking national sheep flock, forecast at 67.1 million head, down 21 per cent from 85.7 million two decades ago.

Rain turns Riverina season around

Strong lamb, mutton and wool prices are encouraging farmers to prioritise livestock over crops.

"We did find that a few farmers were retaining some of their sheep, and probably just easing back on that cropping side of things a bit," West Wyalong livestock agent Paul Quade said.

After a dry start to the year, timely autumn rain also improved the Golder family's grain yield.

"We had dams going empty at the end of February. I even got halfway through [cleaning one], and two days later it was a metre from being full," Chris Golder said.

"We fluked good rain at the start of March and then at the end of March, and that set us up for the winter with feed."

The family's crops are now among the best they have grown.

Graeme Golder said it was unusual to have strong livestock and grain prospects coincide.

"We have had good grain years in the past, but they haven't necessarily lined up with very good livestock years," he said.

Uneven season across NSW

But not every farm is as lucky.

About 45 per cent of NSW is under varying degrees of drought, according to NSW Drought coordinator Ray Willis.

He said the Northern Tablelands and North West remained particularly dry after missing significant winter rainfall, with areas around Ashford, Glen Innes and Tenterfield doing it tough.

Mr Willis said the effect on cropping was particularly stark around Moree, traditionally a "wall-to-wall cropping district", where he had heard only about 10 per cent of the local government area had been planted to crops this season.

Among those growers to forgo a crop was Mungindi's Sam Heagney.

"It was extremely dry through April and May, and we had no chance of planting anything."

Late May storms brought up to 100 millimetres to some nearby properties, but Mr Heagney only received about 20mm.

The lack of profitability ultimately convinced him not to plant.

"The numbers very clearly said not to plant," he said.

"It was really easy on paper; going out in the paddock and actually deciding not to plant was a much harder decision."

After several productive seasons, including record wheat yields in 2025, Mr Heagney described this year as "almost the miss we had to have".

"I just hope it's only the one," he said.

Tough calls on the South Coast

Conditions are also proving difficult on the South Coast, where Bega cattle producer Brett Rogers said hopes of a spring turnaround were fading.

Mr Rogers said producers were considering reducing stock numbers, with strong cattle prices providing an opportunity to lighten off.

"Every load of cattle that goes out of our place is one less bale of hay you've got to feed out," he said.

The Aussie Hay Runners have delivered 26 semi-trailer loads carrying 736 bales of hay, along with calf meal, to dairy farmers in the Bega Valley and South Coast.

Founder Linda Widdup said farmers recovering from natural disasters increasingly needed help.

Drought coordinator Ray Willis, who was preparing to visit the South Coast, said the region was "going backwards at a rate of knots".

Mr Willis warned things could get worse across the state, with the department's drought forecast predicting about 35 per cent of NSW could remain in a drought category at the end of November.

He urged farmers to plan according to current conditions rather than rely on the forecast.

"It's been quite a dry start to spring and temperatures are really starting to warm up," he said.