For most of September, Iranian media published reports of explosions “heard from the sea,” a worrying indication of military activity in the Strait of Hormuz. But those reports did not reveal who was carrying out the attacks. It turned out that Iran itself was implementing it.
Secret data, shared with the New York Times by a Western security official who spoke on condition of anonymity, given the sensitivity of operational information, showed that Iran launches dozens of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the Strait on a weekly basis, largely out of the sight of public opinion, despite often failing to hit its targets.
On Wednesday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard appeared for the first time to confirm its responsibility for the sounds of explosions that were heard almost daily from the southern coast of Iran, announcing that it targets sites in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours.
A spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards said in an interview broadcast on state television: “We prevent them from crossing, but the United States has not responded for a while.”
These attacks reveal that maritime traffic through the Strait remains risky, despite the recovery of oil exports from the Middle East in recent weeks, at a time when Iran seeks to maintain control over one of its most important sources of influence.
40 attacks on ships per week
Gregory Brough, an analyst specializing in Iranian affairs at the Eurasia Group, said: “The negotiations are not making any progress, and neither party shows a real willingness to back down. “So, we are facing a stalemate.” He added that the violence in the Strait “reflects the situation in which both parties find themselves; “Neither of them seeks to escalate the conflict sharply.” But he indicated that both wanted to extend control over the waterway.
According to the data that the Western security official shared with the New York Times, since the beginning of August, Iran has launched about 30 attacks per week with drones, and 10 attacks per week with anti-ship missiles, targeting commercial ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The official said Iran had hit at least four commercial ships over the past 10 days.
A tally of reports issued by a monitoring group run by the British Navy shows that since September 10, at least 13 ships, most of them oil tankers, have been hit by projectiles or resulting fragments. These reports may be incomplete; Because it is based on voluntary reports submitted by ship crews. Although the reports do not specify who is responsible for the attacks, experts in maritime affairs say that their details indicate that Iran is behind many of them.
US Navy supervision
Attacks in the Strait continued, even as crude oil exports from the Middle East approached pre-war levels. Analysts say that one of the reasons for this recovery is due to a US military operation aimed at protecting ships from attacks, a move that appears to have encouraged an increase in shipments from major oil exporting countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
These ships cross Omani territorial waters via a route supervised by the US Navy, with support from US fighters and attack helicopters to help confront the attacks. Some ships also disable their transmitters and receivers, to make it easier for them to cross the strait without being detected.
But analysts believe that providing American military protection requires significant resources, and it will be difficult to continue this effort indefinitely. According to the Clipper Group, which specializes in tracking cargo shipments, a large part of the regional increase in exports is due to export routes that completely avoid the Strait of Hormuz.
“Just because the number of ships and the amount of oil transported has increased compared to what we saw in the previous stages of the war, does not mean that we are witnessing a return to normal in shipping traffic,” said Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at Klber.
The US Central Command (CENTCOM), which supervises military operations in the Middle East, refused to comment on the Iranian attacks that targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz during September. The Pentagon has not announced any strikes against Iran or Iranian ships since the beginning of that month.
A way out of the conflict
Ian Ralby, president of Auxilium Worldwide, a non-profit organization concerned with maritime governance, said that Washington's failure to respond militarily to Iranian attacks targeting ships may be linked to the administration of President Donald Trump's attempt to find a way out of the conflict, which has entered its seventh month.
For his part, Berro, an analyst specializing in Iranian affairs, said that the rise in oil exports may lead the Trump administration to believe that the gains that can be achieved by launching retaliatory strikes have become less.
Since the United States and Israel launched their attacks in February and the outbreak of war, Iran has used its ability to obstruct shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major corridor for oil and gas exports, which has led to turmoil in the global economy.
In response, the United States imposed a naval blockade and tougher sanctions on Iran, increasing pressure on the country, at a time when President Donald Trump seeks to shift the course of the war from a military campaign to a strategy focused on strangling the Iranian economy.
*New York Times service
