Лента.ру50 minutes agoWorld1 min readRussia

The World Bank has changed its forecast for the end of the SVO

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The World Bank has published an updated forecast according to which active hostilities in Ukraine could continue until 2027, significantly worsening the country's economic recovery prospects.
GDP growth in 2026 is expected to be just 1.2%, the worst since 2022, while growth forecasts for 2027 and 2028 have been cut to 1.5% and 3%, respectively, from previously expected 4% or higher.

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Why It Matters

The World Bank periodically updates its economic forecasts for countries affected by the conflict. In this case, the revision is associated with a change in assumptions about the duration of active hostilities in Ukraine.

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The World Bank has changed its forecast for the end of the special operation (SVO) in Ukraine. The corresponding document is published on the organization’s website.

“Ukraine’s recovery will be much weaker than previously predicted, as active hostilities are currently expected to continue into 2027,” the forecast states.

It is noted that Ukraine’s economic growth in 2026, due to labor shortages and high energy prices, will be only 1.2 percent, which will be the worst result since 2022. At the same time, in 2027, the World Bank predicts economic growth of the country to 1.5 percent instead of the previously expected four, and in 2028 - to three percent.

Open Questions

What specific factors led the World Bank to conclude that hostilities will continue until 2027?
Which scenario is considered the baseline in previous World Bank forecasts for Ukraine?
What alternative scenarios for the development of the conflict were considered in the document?