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Back投信機構預估台股第四季有望挑戰五萬點
投信機構預估台股第四季有望挑戰五萬點
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自由时报2 hours agoBusiness2 min readChinaView translation

投信機構預估台股第四季有望挑戰五萬點

台股ai投資企業獲利

Quick Look

國內投信機構表示，受AI熱潮持續推動企業獲利強勁成長影響，預估台股第四季將挑戰五萬點關卡，並指出美債殖利率下滑、外資買超及供應鏈看好為利多因素，但需警惕地緣政治風險、高通膨與低成交量等利空。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

台股受AI投資大趨勢推動，企業獲利預期維持高成長，市場關注第四季是否能挑戰五萬點關卡。

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投信機構表示，由於AI熱潮續燒，企業獲利動能強，預估台股第四季有望挑戰五萬點（資料照／記者王孟倫攝）

〔記者王孟倫／台北報導〕國內投信機構今天表示，在AI投資大趨勢不變下，市場對2026~2027台股上市櫃公司獲利年增率預估，維持在二位數的高成長；展望第四季台股走勢，基本面持續看好是股市上攻的重要推力，加上企業獲利成長動能延續，因此，台股在短期內，「挑戰五萬點不是夢」。

展望第四季台股走勢，台新臺灣中小主動式ETF基金（00416A）經理人沈建宏表示，美國公債殖利率自高點滑落，加上美股光通訊類股大漲，激勵台股收盤上漲，10/2收盤上漲122.25點，力守4萬8000點關卡之上。

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沈建宏指出，後續台股走勢需觀察美債殖利率及國際資金流向變化，若美債殖利率能止穩走跌，甚至跌破5%以上，或外資反手持續買超，則台股將再展開反彈攻勢，進一步挑戰新高點。

此外，台新投顧表示，台股有三大利多因素，包括：「企業獲利創高，供應鏈看好未來營運展望」、「iPhone新機可望帶動供應鏈營運表現」、「AI基建持續加速」；但要關注另有三大利空，包括：「地緣政治風險未除，油價站上百元」、「通膨仍處高檔，聯準會面臨升息壓力」、「台股成交量偏低，不利指數上攻」。

法人表示，因時序接近年底，市場將檢驗「企業今年的獲利是否達標」，以及「今年第四季是否繼續成長」，漲價概念股於第四季的季漲幅，將決定是否能夠開啟股價新一波漲升行情；若漲價題材再起，加上企業獲利成長動能延續，「台股在短期內挑戰、五萬點不是夢」。

台新投信也指出，長期來看，基本面持續看俏，是股市上攻的重要推力，美國PMI創逾四年新高，顯示企業動能加速，緩和市場對經濟放緩的疑慮，並支撐企業獲利前景，提振市場持股信心。

而在AI投資大趨勢不變下，市場對2026~2027台股上市櫃公司獲利年增率預估維持在二位數的高成長，身為全球AI供應鏈關鍵地位的台股中小利基股獲利動能強勁，將扮演台股挑戰新高的領頭羊，建議逢低優先布局台股中小主動式ETF，可望提高投資勝率。

在類股操作上，沈建宏看好AI供應鏈受惠如材料升級、電力革新、新設計等；光通訊供應鏈；關鍵零組件；半導體上游材料與設備；美國設廠受惠股；漲價族群如被動元件、電源IC、矽晶圓；高股息殖利率族群等。

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 台股將在短期內挑戰五萬點關卡

    Likely · Within weeks

  • 若美債殖利率止穩走跌或外資持續買超，台股將反彈攻勢

    Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • 美債殖利率何時能止穩走跌？
  • 外資是否會持續買超台股？
  • 地緣政治風險對台股的具體影響程度為何？

Related Topics

台股
People王孟倫沈建宏
Organizations台新投顧台新臺灣中小主動式ETF基金（00416A）
Places台北台灣美國
Topicsai投資企業獲利美債殖利率外資供應鏈台新投顧
This article was originally published by 自由时报.

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