World Bank, Latin America in 2026 will grow at 2.2% below potential

The World Bank has essentially confirmed the growth prospects of the Latin American and Caribbean region for 2026, bringing them to +2.2% against the +2.1% forecast in April.

This is what we read in the latest update of the 'Latin America and the Caribbean Economic Outlook' which specifies that this result is attributable to the global context and persistent obstacles to the development of growth (persistent inflation, limited fiscal space and high debt costs) and that "it does not reflect the real economic potential of the region". This, it should be noted, without taking into account the characteristic "climate vulnerability" of the region and the possible impact of the 'Super El Niño' in the coming months.

As regards the main economies of the region, Brazil improves the forecast for GDP growth from +1.6 to +2.1% while the estimates for Mexico remain essentially unchanged at +1.4%. As regards Argentina, the World Bank estimates a substantial slowdown in growth, which goes from the +3.6% forecast in April to +2.1%.

Among the most dynamic countries, Guyana once again stands out, which thanks to the development of the exploitation of the huge oil reserves will grow again this year at a rate of 23.7%; and Paraguay, whose growth is estimated at 4.7% despite the contrasting fatigue of neighboring countries and main trading partners.