TASS1 hour agoBusiness1 min readRussia
Bank of Russia projects key rate and inflation through 2029 under risk scenario
Quick Look
- The Bank of Russia projects the key rate at 14.5-14.6% in 2026, rising to 19-21% in 2027 under its risk scenario, with inflation expected at 6-7% in 2026 and peaking at 14-16% in 2028 before declining to 9.5-10.5% in 2029.
- GDP is forecast to contract 3-4% in 2027 and 1.5-2.5% in 2028, then grow 0-1% in 2026 and 2-3% in 2029.
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Why It Matters
The Bank of Russia released its economic projections under a risk scenario, outlining expectations for key interest rates, inflation, and GDP growth through 2029.
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MOSCOW, August 31. /TASS/. The Bank of Russia projects the key rate at 14.5-14.6% in 2026, and at 19-21% in 2027 under its risk scenario, the regulator said.
The key rate is projected at 14-16% in 2028, and at 9.5-10.5% in 2029.
The Central Bank also expects inflation at 6-7% in 2026, 11-13% in 2027, 14-16% in 2028, and 9.5-10.5% in 2029 under this scenario. GDP growth is projected at 0-1% in 2026, and 2-3% in 2029, while GDP contraction is expected at 3-4% in 2027, and 1.5-2.5% in 2028.
Open Questions
- What specific risks underlie the Bank of Russia's risk scenario?
- How do these projections compare to the Bank of Russia's baseline forecast?
- What policy measures is the Bank of Russia considering to address the projected economic contraction?
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This article was originally published by TASS.
