An unprecedented meeting between the leaders of China, Russia and the United States could be happening on the sidelines of Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in China's tech hub of Shenzhen next week.
China has yet to confirm that the meeting will take place. However, a Chinese Foreign Ministry official recently told the press that Beijing was "in communication" with relevant parties. In Moscow, a Kremlin representative said work on "coordination" was underway.
The clearest indication about the potential summit came from US President Donald Trump last weekend. Talking to reporters at a Florida airport, Trump said he "thinks" one of the meetings planned for APEC will be with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Is the world set for a 'new Yalta'?
Despite the lack of official confirmation from either Beijing, Moscow, or Washington, the media has already dubbed the potential trilateral summit a "new Yalta," invoking the optics of the US, UK, and Soviet Union convening at the end of World War II and deciding on the new geopolitical power balance in the Crimean resort town.
At the same time, nobody seems to be quite sure what the three leaders would talk about if China agrees to host the trilateral summit at APEC.
In his brief remarks to reporters on Sunday, Trump avoided mentioning Russia's war in Ukraine when asked about the possibility of the meeting, bringing up only "Iran" and "denuclearization" as possible talking points.
The Chinese Foreign Ministry reported "no information" when questioned earlier this week about the potential substance of talks.
End of campaign to isolate Putin?
A three-way meeting with a photo op would be a big diplomatic win for Russia's President Putin. Since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the Kremlin chief has faced years of diplomatic boycott by Kyiv's allies, most notably the US under Trump's predecessor Joe Biden.
Putin first pitched the idea of a trilateral summit last month during a call with Trump. The Wall Street Journal has reported that Putin wanted the meeting to discuss an end to his war in Ukraine.
For the US, the president standing shoulder to shoulder with the leaders of America's foremost rivals could be a bad look, although Trump has already made a show of personally greeting both leaders with a red carpet at different points during his second term.
As host, China is in an even trickier position. While Russia and China are broadly aligned on many issues, Beijing does not want to be explicitly tied to Russia's war in Ukraine and harm China's efforts to present itself as a long-term force for global stability.
EU wary of being left out of Ukraine talks
The Chinese government is also working to rebalance economic ties with the EU. The European powers would likely bristle at a summit hosted by China and discussing the war in Ukraine without Kyiv or Brussels present at the table.
"China is clearly uneasy about the possible trilateral meeting with the US and Russia, and although Beijing has shifted its position from saying nothing to admitting that the three powers are in contact, the vagueness of these declarations seems deliberate," Alicja Bachulska, Asia policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told DW.
"Beijing is aware of the potential negative optics of the 'Yalta 2.0' framing, even if this historical comparison is inaccurate and does not reflect current geopolitical dynamics," Bachulska said.
She notes the trilateral meeting could "trigger further escalation in the already worsening relations between China and the EU" if Ukraine is discussed with no Europeans in the room.
For China, there is also little to gain in terms of optics. Images of Xi standing with Trump, the leader of Beijing's top rival, and Putin, Beijing's partner in opposing the US, could present an awkward look.
"Even if the meeting only yields a photo opportunity, it could nevertheless severely erode China's image," Bachulska added.
Beijing and Moscow stick to 'no limits' partnership
Putin and Xi have met some 40 times since the Chinese president came to power in 2012.
The two neighboring countries have grown especially close following the declaration of "no limits" partnership accord in early 2022. The move was announced by Xi and Putin on the sidelines of Beijing Winter Olympics, just weeks before the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
The current Russia-China ties are deeper than they have been in decades.
At the core of the axis between the two nations is a long-term strategy to contain US power while fostering an alternative global order both Moscow and Beijing can use for their own ends.
China helping Russia from the sidelines
Throughout the course of the Ukraine war, which is nearing the end of its fifth year with no solution in sight, Beijing has quietly provided Russia with crucial market for energy exports, while supplying technology and so-called "dual-use" goods.
While China did not explicitly provide Russia with weapons, its exports included high-tech components that could be used for modern weapons systems like drones.
Officially, Beijing maintains neutrality on the Ukraine war and has refused to take responsibility for its outcome.
"China is more interested in reforming global governance in ways that reflect its preferences and red lines while preserving a collegial appearance," Aurelio Insisa, senior analyst at the Berlin-based Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS), told DW.
Even if China agrees to host the meeting, it will likely avoid framing it as three top powers making decisions for the rest of the world, according to Insisa.
"Embracing the 'G3' narrative would undermine its image as a champion of the Global South and developing countries. It is also worth noting that Beijing has shown no interest in engaging with the one pressing issue that could realistically be addressed in such a trilateral format: nuclear disarmament," he added.
What are the actual limits of China-Russia axis?
In a report published in August, the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC), painted China as a "decisive enabler" of Russia's war in Ukraine.
Beijing was "converting Moscow's dependence into lasting military, technological, economic, and geopolitical advantages while avoiding the obligations of a formal alliance," according to the US body.
However, the commission also noted there were limits to Beijing's strategic support, and intelligence and security concerns remain a constraint on deeper cooperation. The report emphasizes the relationship is more of a strategic alignment than an alliance, with deep mistrust remaining in some key areas.
Russian defense firms, for instance, have accused Chinese companies of stealing intellectual property. Beijing, on the other hand, is concerned with Russia's growing strategic relationship with North Korea, which has reduced Pyongyang's dependence on China.
China and Russia also differ on nuclear doctrine. While Beijing maintains a longstanding "no first use" policy, Moscow uses nuclear threats as part of its strategy.
China getting a 'privileged vantage point' on Ukraine war
But for now, the benefits of alignment remain.
MERICS' analyst Insisa believes the cooperation between Russia and China will largely continue within this year's framework, including Russia providing energy and potentially transfering military technology in the "few remaining areas where it retains an advantage."
"China, in turn, will continue to supply dual-use technologies, purchase Russian energy, provide Moscow with a measure of diplomatic cover, and — more importantly — offer channels for circumventing Western sanctions," he added.
Notably, China will also get a "privileged vantage point" on how the battlefield in Ukraine is evolving land warfare.
"Strategic distrust between the two sides, particularly Russia's concerns about economic dependence on China, will continue to limit the scope of their cooperation," Insisa said.
