On the afternoon of July 25, 2026, the giant oil tanker Kiko, owned by a Greek company, docked at the oil export terminal of Qatar’s Mesaieed Port, a huge port with 30 berths on the country’s west coast, 25 miles south of Doha.
Four days later, Kiko sailed loaded with crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz. The VLCC, the largest oil tanker with a length of more than 1,000 feet, maintained a constant speed of 13 knots while crossing the Gulf, which is close to its maximum speed.
Then, on July 31, shortly after 2pm, Kiko disappeared off the coast of Dubai.
The ship turned off its automatic transceiver (AIS), a marine radio device that broadcasts the ship's identity, speed, course and location. To tracking services that monitor maritime traffic around the world, Kiko appeared to have simply disappeared.
Suddenly, at 10 a.m. on August 1, the Kiko signal appeared again, but on the other side of the Strait of Hormuz.
The ship was part of the oil industry's latest tactic of "dark transit" or "stealth passage" at night through the strait under US military protection. The goal is to avoid Iranian drone attacks, such as the attack that targeted “Kiko” a month ago, without the drone exploding.
With the help of the US Navy, Saudi, Kuwaiti, Qatari, and Emirati oil companies chartered oil tankers to turn off their transponders and transport oil from the Gulf through the Strait of Hormuz to the Gulf of Oman, where they unloaded their cargo of crude oil into waiting tankers owned by the purchasing companies, before the tankers returned back through the strait.
This step removed the burden of expensive insurance risks and hesitation and fear of Iranian attacks from the shoulders of commercial shipping companies, placing it on the shoulders of the US government and oil producers themselves.
According to the US Department of Energy, this strategy has become effective, as average oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz ranged between 8 million and 9 million barrels per day. That's a lot of crude oil, roughly double what Wall Street oil analysts and shipping tracking companies like Kpler were inferring based on transponder data.
The secret crossings have changed the rules of the game for the Middle East oil industry.
CNN monitored more than ten operations to transfer oil from one ship to another in the Gulf of Oman over a period of two days, while the tankers continued their journey to destinations including China, Taiwan, South Korea, the Philippines, Vietnam and Thailand.
It is a risky and costly maneuver that provides some temporary relief to oil markets. But in light of the continued absence of permanent solutions, whether through an agreement to end the war or a sustainable plan for the Strait of Hormuz, this temporary solution allows time to be gained.
The rise in “dark transits” such as the recent voyage of the KEKO tanker comes at a crucial time for the energy market. The war, which lasted much longer than many expected, disrupted about a fifth of global oil supplies for six months, but in recent weeks it has reached a turning point.
Billions of barrels of oil and fuel have vanished from commercial stocks, and US emergency reserves have fallen to their lowest levels since the early 1980s. China's reliance on its huge oil reserves, which was a major factor in keeping oil prices from reaching $150 a barrel, will not last forever. Bond market investors and voters are also starting to lose patience with rising rates.
Faced with this nightmare scenario, oil producers in the Middle East began using their new strategy during the past weeks. This strategy does not represent an ideal solution; The Strait of Hormuz is very narrow, only 23 miles wide. Hiding places are limited, and radars can still detect ships even with their transponders turned off. Two ships belonging to the UAE were attacked this week.
But about 80% of the shipping traffic through the strait during the past two weeks was “dark” or “hidden,” as ships sailed along the Omani coast, the farthest possible distance from Iran, according to Kpler data. Due to the regional conflict, some tracking data has been subject to GPS interference, which may make assessing ship movement difficult.
Like many ships using this new tactic, Kiko reappeared a day after turning off its transponder, while it was anchored near the UAE port of Fujairah. After its signal reappeared, Kiko docked alongside another Greek supertanker, the Nave Electron, which had arrived in the Gulf of Oman the day before.
The two ships stayed together for a week to transfer oil from one ship to another. When they separated on August 8, Nev Electron left the Gulf loaded with oil, heading into the Arabian Sea on its way to Ningbo, China.
As for "Kiko", it remained off the coast of Fujairah until about August 14, when it turned off its transmitter and receiver again. The next day, shortly before four in the afternoon, its signal appeared again in the Gulf, heading back towards Qatar.
The “dark transit” operations under military protection are the latest example of Middle Eastern oil producers increasing the amount of oil they can export to customers around the world, in a move that has tipped the balance of power vis-à-vis Iran. In particular, Saudi Arabia redirected about 5 million barrels of oil per day that were scheduled to be headed to oil tankers waiting in the Gulf. Instead, this oil was transported via the East-West pipeline to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
Middle Eastern oil producers also redirected about two million barrels per day around the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, production has risen in other regions of the world to make up for the shortfall. Brazil, Guyana and Venezuela combined added more than a million barrels per day to production, while the United States added hundreds of thousands of barrels per day to the market.
“Dark” crossing operations have also taken place for months, with less coordination and less military protection. On the other side of the equation, the United States released 400 million barrels of oil from its emergency reserves, which led to a significant depletion of its stock in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. China also relied heavily on its huge oil reserves, while significantly reducing its imports of crude oil.
Global demand also declined significantly with the rise in prices, which helped achieve balance in the oil market and deliver crude to the customers who need it. The market continues to find a way to adapt. It has proven to be far more complex and flexible than even the most knowledgeable experts expected when the war began.
Radar and satellite images of the Strait of Hormuz paint a different picture than what transponder data reveal. For example, satellite images taken on August 14 show rows of dots extending in an arc along the Omani coast across the Strait of Hormuz. But these points do not match ship tracking data on the same day and time. These ships disappeared from the tracking devices.
On August 7, two tankers owned by Greek companies appeared next to each other in the Gulf of Oman on transponder data. Satellite images show the Nissos Kythnos, a shuttle tanker, which had crossed the strait in a “dark” manner, lined up alongside Front Otra.
On August 14, Front Otra was spotted in the Arabian Sea, en route to Taiwan, while Nessos Kythnos had returned to the Gulf.
But the situation cannot continue like this forever. Oil stocks declined by as much as 1.9 billion barrels during the war. If the market reaches a state of equilibrium, it will be necessary to replenish these stocks to avoid a new crisis. However, if this balance is not achieved, stocks will eventually be depleted to levels so low that they will no longer be able to be relied upon to meet global demand for oil, which will lead to a turning point at which the market will have no choice but to raise oil prices significantly to curb further demand.
A similar problem has already emerged in the fuel market; Three of the four largest oil refining centers in the world are under severe pressure. The war with Iran has damaged refineries in the Middle East and led to a slowdown in fuel exports from the region.
As for Russia, another major fuel exporter, its capabilities have been disrupted by another war, the war with Ukraine. Ukrainian drones targeted Russian refineries, while Moscow reduced its exports to face fuel shortages in the local market. To avoid a fuel shortage, China is seeking to limit its exports of refined petroleum products. This is of great importance because China is usually a major fuel exporter.
This leaves US refineries on the Gulf Coast bearing the brunt of global demand. But American refineries cannot operate at maximum capacity indefinitely. The demand for gasoline, especially diesel and jet fuel, is witnessing a significant increase in light of the limited refining capacity needed to produce it, which has led to prices rising to levels far exceeding what crude oil prices suggest.
US President Donald Trump had succeeded, within months, in pressuring oil prices to decline, by threatening an imminent breakthrough in the negotiations. But his strategy has changed recently; The new American strategy has become to strangle Iran economically, by implementing an “overwhelming economic operation” through a long-term naval blockade of Iranian ports. This led to oil prices gradually rising within weeks, approaching $100 per barrel.
With both countries mired in an intractable stalemate of war, the battle over control of the strait has kept oil prices, especially gas, diesel and jet fuel, at alarmingly high levels for consumers, increasing inflation and reducing disposable income. But the market's remarkable ability to find ways to adapt, even partially, to the repercussions of the conflict also prevented prices from rising to astronomical levels that would have been caused by the largest oil supply shock in world history.
