Tensions have risen between Washington and Tehran with attacks on ships in the Strait of Hormuz and the imposition of new US sanctions

Washington and Tehran are approaching a new military confrontation in light of faltering diplomatic efforts, while the tone of statements and threats is escalating, in addition to adherence to hard-line positions on both sides, and ships continuing to be targeted in the Strait of Hormuz.

The US President has repeatedly indicated recently that he will strike Iran with “severe force” if it does not reach an agreement with his administration, suggesting that this will happen after the midterm congressional elections next month, or perhaps before them. Trump also urged Tehran to make “the right decision” before it is too late, adding that he does not know “who he is dealing with in Iran.”

On the other hand, Tehran responded by saying that its armed forces were ready for a “war of attrition” or a “lightning operation” if Washington resumed attacking it.

In light of this escalation, the British Maritime Trade Operations Authority announced that it had received a report from a third party stating that the tanker was hit by an unknown projectile while crossing the Strait of Hormuz. On Friday, the tanker was attacked while exiting the Strait of Hormuz. This caused a fire on board, which was later extinguished so that it could continue its voyage, according to what was reported by the British Maritime Trade Operations Authority. The authority said that the captain reported that the tanker had been “struck by an unspecified projectile while it was sailing out of the strait.” Which led to a small fire and a power outage on board.” The authority explained, according to Agence France-Presse, that “the fire has been extinguished, and the ship continues its voyage.” The authority explained that the tanker, which did not reveal its name or the flag it was flying, continued its journey after the fire was brought under control.

Iran has recently intensified its attacks on commercial ships crossing the Strait. It launched about 30 drone attacks and 10 anti-ship missile attacks weekly, according to confidential data from a Western security official reported by the American newspaper The New York Times.

The official added that at least 4 commercial ships were hit by Iranian attacks during the past ten days, while British Navy reports indicate that at least 13 ships, most of them oil tankers, were hit by projectiles or their debris, since last September 10.

Intensification of US sanctions

In parallel with the military threats, Washington expanded the scope of its economic pressure on Tehran, with the US Treasury Department announcing, on Thursday, the imposition of new sanctions on the railway and automobile sectors in Iran, as well as foreign companies and suppliers that deal with them, in the latest steps of a campaign aimed at reducing the financial resources available to the Iranian government.

The sanctions fall within the “economic exclusion” process announced by the Treasury Department on August 24, with the aim of depriving Tehran of revenues that Washington says are used to finance the war, develop missiles, carry out cyber attacks, and support the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.

The new measures target sectors that have gained increasing importance to Iran, in light of the US naval blockade that has disrupted oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, and prompted Tehran to increase its reliance on land transportation networks to transport oil, fertilizers, chemicals, and other goods.

The sanctions included the Iranian Khodro and Saipa automobile companies, which the Treasury said accounted for more than 90 percent of the domestic automobile market, as well as the state-owned Iranian Railways Company, the Raja Trains Company for passenger transport, and the Rah Ahan Transport Company, which the Ministry described as one of the largest private goods shipping companies in the country.

The sanctions also affected foreign companies in Indonesia and Turkey, which Washington accuses of supplying the Iranian auto sector with the necessary supplies to continue its activity.

US Treasury Secretary Scott Besent said that the new measures “directly target those who help Iran,” and pave the way for the United States and its partners to permanently drain the Iranian regime’s revenues.

The sanctions reflect an American trend towards expanding the scope of the economic blockade, so that it is not limited to disrupting maritime exports, but extends to transportation, trade, and supply networks inside and outside Iran.

However, this strategy raises concerns about its repercussions on the living conditions of Iranians, in light of the wide range of targeted sectors and its potential impact on economic activity, job opportunities, and transportation and production costs.

Russian A7 platform

As part of its efforts to clamp down on financing networks that it accuses of helping Iran circumvent sanctions, the US Treasury Department imposed new measures on the Russian “A7” financial transfer platform, accusing it of facilitating financial transactions linked to Iran, and concealing payments belonging to sectors and individuals subject to sanctions.

The ministry said on Thursday that it prohibits dealings with the platform and its agents, describing it as a “large transnational criminal organization,” noting that the new measures expand the scope of previous sanctions to include the entire network associated with it.

A7 was founded in 2024 by the Russian BSB Bank, which focuses on the defense sector, and quickly became one of the most prominent players operating in the international payments market in Russia, at a time when Moscow seeks to develop financial systems alternative to the Western system, relying on means that include cryptocurrencies, gold, and non-Western currencies, and in cooperation with major trading partners, including China and India.

In a statement issued on Friday, the platform rejected the American accusations, denying any links to Iran or terrorist organizations, and confirming that it provides payment settlement services for the Russian market, which it said is subject to illegal restrictive measures, and added that it provides its services to support legitimate import and export operations related to consumer goods and raw materials.

On the other hand, the US Treasury Department said that the platform created a global network of subsidiaries with the aim of hiding payments linked to sectors and people subject to sanctions, and presenting them as normal commercial transactions, adding that Iran and the Revolutionary Guard benefited from this network.

Araqji's proposal

In parallel with the military and economic escalation, indications have emerged of Iranian diplomatic action to contain the pressure. Informed sources reported to Bloomberg that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi proposed, during his meetings in New York, to allow International Atomic Energy Agency inspectors to access the nuclear facilities that were bombed during the war, in exchange for easing US sanctions.

According to the sources, the proposal may reflect the extent of the economic pressures facing Tehran, and its desire to reach an understanding that eases the impact of the sanctions, even though Araqchi did not provide, during his meetings, extensive details regarding the Iranian economic situation, or the nature of the concessions that his country may be prepared to make.

The proposal comes at a time when the nuclear files, sanctions, and regional security still constitute the most prominent points of disagreement between Washington and Tehran, amid American doubts about the chances of reaching a viable agreement.

While Washington continues to combine the threat of using force with the tightening of sanctions, Tehran seeks to demonstrate its readiness for military confrontation, while keeping the door open to diplomatic understandings that may allow for alleviating economic pressures. However, the continued targeting of ships in the Strait of Hormuz, and the divergence of the positions of the two parties regarding the security and nuclear files, keep the possibilities of escalation alive, and make the path that the confrontation will take depend on the extent of the two sides’ willingness to make concessions that prevent renewed military operations.

For most of September, Iranian media published reports of explosions “heard from the sea,” a worrying indication of military activity in the Strait of Hormuz. But those reports did not reveal who was carrying out the attacks. It turned out that Iran itself was implementing it.

Secret data, shared with the New York Times by a Western security official who spoke on condition of anonymity, given the sensitivity of operational information, showed that Iran launches dozens of drone and missile attacks on commercial ships in the Strait on a weekly basis, largely out of the sight of public opinion, despite often failing to hit its targets.

On Wednesday, the Iranian Revolutionary Guard appeared for the first time to confirm its responsibility for the sounds of explosions that were heard almost daily from the southern coast of Iran, announcing that it targets sites in the Strait of Hormuz every 24 hours.

A spokesman for the Revolutionary Guards said in an interview broadcast on state television: “We prevent them from crossing, but the United States has not responded for a while.”

These attacks reveal that maritime traffic through the Strait remains risky, despite the recovery of oil exports from the Middle East in recent weeks, at a time when Iran seeks to maintain control over one of its most important sources of influence.

40 attacks on ships per week

Gregory Brough, an analyst specializing in Iranian affairs at the Eurasia Group, said: “The negotiations are not making any progress, and neither party shows a real willingness to back down. “So, we are facing a stalemate.” He added that the violence in the Strait “reflects the situation in which both parties find themselves; “Neither of them seeks to escalate the conflict sharply.” But he indicated that both wanted to extend control over the waterway.

According to the data that the Western security official shared with the New York Times, since the beginning of August, Iran has launched about 30 attacks per week with drones, and 10 attacks per week with anti-ship missiles, targeting commercial ships crossing the Strait of Hormuz. The official said Iran had hit at least four commercial ships over the past 10 days.

A tally of reports issued by a monitoring group run by the British Navy shows that since September 10, at least 13 ships, most of them oil tankers, have been hit by projectiles or resulting fragments. These reports may be incomplete; Because it is based on voluntary reports submitted by ship crews. Although the reports do not specify who is responsible for the attacks, experts in maritime affairs say that their details indicate that Iran is behind many of them.

US Navy supervision

Attacks in the Strait continued, even as crude oil exports from the Middle East approached pre-war levels. Analysts say one of the reasons for this recovery is due to a US military operation aimed at protecting ships from attacks, a move that appears to have encouraged an increase in shipments from major oil exporting countries, such as Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

These ships cross Omani territorial waters via a route supervised by the US Navy, with support from US fighters and attack helicopters to help confront the attacks. Some ships also disable their transmitters and receivers, to make it easier for them to cross the strait without being detected.

But analysts believe that providing American military protection requires significant resources, and it will be difficult to continue this effort indefinitely. According to the Clipper Group, which specializes in tracking cargo shipments, a large part of the regional increase in exports is due to export routes that completely avoid the Strait of Hormuz.

“Just because the number of ships and the amount of oil transported has increased compared to what we saw in the previous stages of the war, does not mean that we are witnessing a return to normal in shipping traffic,” said Ana Subasic, a trade risk analyst at Klber.

The US Central Command (CENTCOM), which supervises military operations in the Middle East, refused to comment on the Iranian attacks that targeted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz during September. The Pentagon has not announced any strikes against Iran or Iranian ships since the beginning of that month.

A way out of the conflict

Ian Ralby, president of Auxilium Worldwide, a non-profit organization concerned with maritime governance, said that Washington's failure to respond militarily to Iranian attacks targeting ships may be linked to the administration of President Donald Trump's attempt to find a way out of the conflict, which has entered its seventh month.

For his part, Berro, an analyst specializing in Iranian affairs, said that the rise in oil exports may lead the Trump administration to believe that the gains that can be achieved by launching retaliatory strikes have become less.

Since the United States and Israel launched their attacks in February and the outbreak of war, Iran has used its ability to obstruct shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which is a major corridor for oil and gas exports, which has led to turmoil in the global economy.

In response, the United States imposed a naval blockade and tougher sanctions on Iran, increasing pressure on the country, at a time when President Donald Trump seeks to shift the course of the war from a military campaign to a strategy focused on strangling the Iranian economy.

*New York Times service