Bitcoin: JPMorgan predicts it 10% per year, better than American stocks and gold

Nine years after Jamie Dimon’s “scam”, a nice round 10%. JPMorgan’s asset management division has just included Bitcoin in its long-term return assumptions. His forecast gives him 10% per year over 10 to 15 years, more than the big stocks on Wall Street and gold.

The bank boss called BTC a fraud in 2017, then deemed it as useful as a pet stone. His strategists have just placed him at the top of their table.

Key Points

J.P. Morgan Asset Management calculates for the first time the expected return on bitcoin, at 10% compounded per year.

US large caps cap at 7.5% and the yellow metal at 5.5%.

In return, the bank expects annual variations of 55%, three times those of shares.

No allocation is recommended and the cryptocurrency remains outside of major portfolio models.

JPMorgan includes Bitcoin in its long-term forecast

Every fall, J.P. Morgan Asset Management publishes its Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions. This large document calculates the expected return of more than 200 asset classes over 10 to 15 years. Pension funds, insurers and managers use it to build their strategic allocations.

The 31st edition was released on October 19, 2026, with data as of September 30. Bitcoin is making its debut. “For the first time, we are setting a return range for bitcoin, even if we do not yet integrate it into our main covariance matrices,” writes the bank in the presentation of its study.

The figure used is 10% per year in compound return, which measures what you actually earn. Conversely, large-cap American stocks obtained 7.5%, a forecast raised by 0.8 points thanks to margins above 15%. American listed real estate is at 8.2%, gold at 5.5%. A classic portfolio of 60% stocks and 40% bonds comes out to 7%.

Over time, the gap widens quickly. At 10% per year, an investment is multiplied by 2.59 in ten years and by 4.18 in fifteen years. The major American values ​​make ×2.06 over ten years, gold ×1.71.

Bitcoin at 55% volatility according to JPMorgan

The gift has a counterpart. JPMorgan assumes an annual volatility of 55% for bitcoin, compared to around 18% for major US stocks and 17.2% for gold. Volatility measures the magnitude of price variations. At this level, seeing your investment halve in twelve months is nothing exceptional.

This agitation creates a spectacular gap in the picture. The arithmetic average return of BTC reaches 20.9% per year, but it drops to 10% when compounded. More than ten points evaporate en route.

The bank remains cautious on the rest. Bitcoin only enters a small, separate matrix, alongside a few listed assets, and no numerical allocation is offered. According to crypto.news, the report also warns against the idea that distrust of the dollar would mechanically push investors towards cryptocurrencies.

Matt Hougan, investment director of Bitwise, quickly relayed the table on X. For him, these figures make bitcoin the most profitable asset of the coming decade. He even considers JPMorgan too cautious, with overestimated volatility and underestimated returns. Grayscale also measures a realized volatility of 43% over the last twelve months, far from the 55% used by the bank.