Galaxy Digital’s head of research thinks the worst is over for Bitcoin.
In a report published Monday, Alex Thorn, Galaxy’s head of firmwide research, argued that Bitcoin’s bear market ended in June and that the asset is now in an accumulation phase. “Our conclusion is simple: we believe now is an attractive time to buy and hold bitcoin,” he wrote.
The call comes as Bitcoin struggles for direction. It traded at around $80,000 on Thursday, 36% below its October 2025 high but 39% above its June 30 low. On Sunday, Bitcoin briefly slipped below $80,000 to about $79,700, according to CoinGecko.
Thorn’s case starts with the charts. Bitcoin spent 44 weeks below its 50-week moving average before reclaiming it in September, and the week ended Oct. 18 marked its fifth straight weekly close above that line. Since 2011, Bitcoin has reclaimed the average after a stretch of 20 weeks or more four times. In each case, the price never closed more than 8.4% below the reclaim level over the following year and eventually regained its prior all-time high.
The halving cycle, the roughly four-year event when rewards for Bitcoin miners are cut in half thereby reducing new supply, points the same way. The three previous cycles bottomed between 777 and 912 days after a halving, and Thursday was day 916. The latest downturn was also the shallowest on record: a 53% drop, compared with declines of 77% to 93% in past cycles.
Onchain data appears to back that up. For the first time in any bear market, Bitcoin’s market value never fell below its realized value, the average price at which every coin last moved. The ratio between the two bottomed at 1.10, compared with lows of 0.56, 0.69 and 0.75 in prior cycles.
Short-term holders, whose coins carried the recovery from $58,525, have an average cost of $74,811 and sit about 9% in profit. Yet the spent-output profit ratio, which tracks whether coins are being sold at a gain, sits at 1.009, suggesting few are cashing out.
Selling pressure is fading, too. Long-dormant coins, unmoved for five years or more, have been sold at about 34,000 BTC a month this year, half the 2024 pace. U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs have added 87,000 BTC since the June low after holdings fell just 11% from peak to trough while the price dropped 53%, the report found.
Thorn also argued that the macro case has strengthened. Federal debt has reached $40.44 trillion, fiscal 2026 ended with a $1.99 trillion deficit, and the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.31% this month, its highest since 2007. Meanwhile, the S&P 500 sits less than 1% below a record, while Bitcoin would need to rise 53% to reclaim its high.
“A bet against stocks and hard assets is a bet on fiat, the one position that makes no sense today,” Thorn wrote.
The bullish call lands in a choppy market. Spot Bitcoin ETFs swung from a $1 billion three-day inflow streak to two days of heavy outflows this week, leaving October flows in the red.
Last week’s hotter-than-expected inflation data revived bets on another Federal Reserve rate hike, and Bitcoin briefly dipped below $80,000. Higher interest rates lift Treasury yields, the return investors earn for lending to the U.S. government. A bond paying around 5% with almost no risk makes Bitcoin a harder sell, while higher rates make borrowing pricier and strengthen the dollar.
Thorn’s tripwire is a weekly close below the 50-week average, currently $76,540, that isn’t regained within a month. He also noted that Bitcoin “has proven its ability to run to at least $125k, and we see no reason why it can’t retake that level.”
Galaxy and Thorn both disclose that they hold Bitcoin.
