UN 2026 risk report! 76 percent: A major war could occur in seven years

Asena Yatağan - According to the survey results, she prepared the 2026 Global Risk Report in the light of the evaluations over the two-year period. In the report, where the survey conducted between February 19 and April 24, 2026 was compared with the first survey in 2024, changes in global risk perception were discussed based on 1,300 responses. In addition, more than 40 reports were examined and 28 global risks were identified as a result of the evaluations of the UN and the University of Denver Pardee Center for International Futures.

Expectations rose 16 places

36 percent of participants assessed that a large-scale war could occur within the next 12 months, and 76 percent assessed that it could occur within the next seven years. While the expectation of large-scale war rose 16 places according to the first survey, this result was highlighted in the report as the largest upward change recorded.

Other risks

Geopolitical tensions, disinformation and the collapse of the rule of law were at the center of the links between risks. The global financial crisis and the collapse of supply chains stood out among the economic risks that may be effective in the near term. Failure to combat climate change was also included as the most important global risk in the report. Political risks have also increased significantly compared to the survey in 2024. New pandemics, biological risks and mass mobility of people were rated with lower levels of importance than in the previous survey.

trigger each other

The report stated that global risks are parts of a network that can trigger each other and magnify their effects, and the connection between geopolitical tensions and large-scale war was revealed as the strongest relationship between risks. Natural resource scarcity, economic fragmentation, disinformation and the weakening of multilateral institutions were listed as the main related risks that could increase geopolitical tensions.

The most unprepared area is technological risks

According to the report, although international institutions that need to intervene in global risks are seen as strong in detecting and warning of risks, confidence in their capacity to actually reduce risks is low. 86 percent of those surveyed also found the funding allocated to risk reduction and prevention efforts insufficient. According to the report, technological risks are the area where the preparation level of the international system is seen to be lowest.

Threats by region

According to the report, global risks vary by region. While the possibility of large-scale war, geopolitical tensions and artificial intelligence-related risks come to the fore in Europe and North America, war, geopolitical tensions and weapons of mass destruction are among the main threats in Central and South Asia. In East and Southeast Asia, the risk of financial crisis, threats caused by artificial intelligence and the concentration of technological power in the hands of certain actors come to the fore. While the risk of war, weakening of the rule of law and natural disasters draw attention in Sub-Saharan Africa, inequalities, disinformation and climate change are among the main risks facing the region in Latin America and the Caribbean.