When imposing barriers on Brazilian meat, such as the one that came into force this Thursday (3) by the European Union, Brazil needs to be more concerned with chicken than with beef. International competition favors cattle farming, but it should become more fierce in poultry farming.
The scenario for Brazilian beef is calmer due to the decline in herds in important producers, such as the United States, and the difficult recovery in the short term. In chicken, there is strong competition from China, which, from being an importer, has become an exporter in this sector.
The Asian country is looking for new markets, with competitive prices. In fact, participation in the European Union market has greatly increased, which is imposing restrictions on Brazilian products.
World beef production is expected to reach 62 million tons, according to the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture). Of this volume, 12.4 million originate in Brazil and 11.7 million in the United States, the two main world markets.
The European Union, which is stopping buying Brazilian meat until the country proves that it has stopped using antimicrobial substances in animal production, has a declining herd and high production costs, due to inputs and regulatory pressures. Despite a drop in consumption, the bloc will continue to depend on beef.
Global beef exports are expected to total 13.8 million tons this year, and 4.3 million come from Brazil. With this, the country increases its share of the world market to 31%, well above the 24% in 2022.
With one of the main herds, and gaining productivity in recent years, Brazil should not be threatened by other producers, within normal market conditions. Occasionally, as is the case this year, there may be a smaller evolution in exports than in some competitors, such as Argentina.
The neighboring country found a favorable situation this year due to the size of the quota received from China, the greater opening of the United States market and the occupation of part of the meat that Europeans will not import from Brazil.
In the beef market, Brazil has few competitors in sight for the coming years. This is not the case with chicken, where competition is expected to be greater, especially from China. Just as occurred with pork production, which recovered quickly after the outbreak of African swine fever, chicken production has also been increasing, and China has surplus for exports.
The Chinese have a low consumption of chicken meat, just 11 kg per person per year. In the United States there are 55, and in Brazil, 47. The Chinese population has lost its growth rate, and the volume available for exports has increased.
With government subsidies, this year's chicken meat production is expected to reach 17.3 million tons in the Asian country, the second largest in the world, surpassing Brazil's and second only to that of the United States.
With a competitive product, the Chinese are reshaping their export market and increasing their participation in Asia, Africa, Europe and the Middle East. This year, they should reach third place among the main exporters, displacing Thailand, Brazil's traditional competitor.
In 2020, the Chinese exported 388 thousand tons of chicken meat. This year, the volume is expected to total 1.4 million tons, according to USDA. Production increased by 19% in the period, while domestic consumption grew by 6%.
Japan was the biggest market in 2020, when 42% of Chinese exports went to the Japanese. Last year, this share fell to 19%. But China expanded its participation in other regions. The European Union, which was the destination for 5% of chicken meat in 2020, now receives 10%. Russia, which has not been very important in Chinese exports for a few years, is expected to take 11%.
In the pork sector, the central point of the world market is China, which went through a serious health crisis starting in 2018. That year, production was 54 million tons, and the country's import needs were 1.54 million.
In 2020, under the effects of African swine fever, the country's production fell to 36 million, and imports rose to 5.3 million. During this period, Brazil was one of the main beneficiaries of Chinese purchases.
The recovery of the sector was so fast that the country now has a policy to reduce the number of matrices. Production has advanced a lot and is beginning to affect the sector's profitability. The USDA forecast is for a domestic supply of 59.5 million tons this year. As a result, imports drop to 1 million, which forces Brazil to look for other markets. The Chinese poultry sector should follow the same path.
Storage The country's total static capacity serves only 62% of the harvest. Faced with an El Niño that could greatly alter the rainy season in the various producing regions, this storage capacity becomes a problem for producers, trading companies and industries.
Storage 2 Soy is one of the concerns. In addition to the difficulties in exporting, mainly in the river system which is expected to be affected by the drought, the industry advances in the processing of oilseeds every year. This year, there will be 63 million tons. This soy remains on the domestic market.
Tapajós Entities from 31 sectors linked to agribusiness asked the Ministry of Agriculture to urgently dredge the Tapajós River to maintain the navigability of the waterway, one of the main logistical corridors of Arco Norte.
