When it comes to soy, Brazil and China have an interdependent relationship: Brazil is the largest supplier of the grain to the Asian country, while China is the main buyer of Brazilian soy.
But this relationship may be threatened for three reasons, according to experts interviewed by g1:
After years of trade war with the United States, China returned to purchasing North American soybeans, which could reduce the space of the Brazilian product in the Chinese market;
The Asian country wants to depend less on soybean imports, expanding domestic production and reducing consumption of the grain;
The Chinese population is expected to decline in the coming years, which could reduce demand for protein-rich foods and, consequently, for soy.
A contraction in Chinese demand carries the risk of simultaneous falls in prices and export earnings. According to a report from consultancy Systemiq, this could have cascading effects on rural producers' income, land appreciation, employment in the countryside and processing infrastructure.
Therefore, experts recommend that the sector prepares for a possible reduction in exports, avoiding expanding the soybean planted area or investing in grain processing to add value to production.
Competition between the USA and Brazil for China
China has committed to purchasing 25 million tons of soybeans from the United States annually between 2026 and 2028. In addition, the Chinese have committed to purchasing at least US$17 billion (R$86.1 billion) per year in North American agricultural products.
The measure was announced in May, after Trump returned from a summit in Beijing, where he sought to soften the impact of the trade war that he himself started last year with tariffs.
In response to US tariffs, China imposed an additional tax of more than 20% on a range of products, including soybeans. According to the US Soybean Association (ASA), the measure made North American grain considerably more expensive than that produced in Latin America.
As a result, US soybean exports to China fell by 50% in one year. The reduction also contributed to a 40% drop in product prices.
Compliance with the agreement to purchase 25 million tons could increase competition with Brazilian soy. Still, for Larissa Wachholz, an expert on China, it is a positive sign that the two countries have not signed new agreements.
In September, the US and China agreed to reduce tariffs on US$60 billion (about R$311 billion) in goods imported from each other. Soy was left out of the agreement and maintained a tariff of 13%, established after negotiations on the tariff.
"[Maintaining] this tariff also ends up being a sign of caution, that the relationship is stable, but that it is not completely normalized", says Wachholz.
The tariff favors Brazil's competitiveness, as Brazilian soybeans are taxed at just 3%. “This difference of 10 percentage points helps to preserve Brazilian competitiveness, at least in the short term, even with the bilateral approach", says Patrícia Ellen, global leader of Nature and Food Systems at Systemiq.
Still, China has been buying North American soybeans to fulfill its commitment. The expert explains that the volume of 25 million tons is within the levels that the country had already acquired from the USA in previous years.
Since 2017, Brazil has consolidated itself as China's main soybean supplier.
In the past, the two countries' share of Chinese imports was more balanced. In 2016, for example, the US supplied 41% of the soybeans purchased by China. That year, Brazil accounted for 45%.
But, since the first Trump administration, which began in January 2017, China and the USA have faced trade disputes that led the Chinese to increase purchases of Brazilian soybeans.
During the dispute, North American farmers lost US$27 billion (approximately R$104 billion, at the time) in exports, according to the news agency France Presse (AFP). At the time, the Trump administration granted US$23 billion in subsidies to the sector.
"The United States had greater difficulty in negotiations, which caused the premiums for Brazilian soybeans to be higher", says Beber.
The soybean premium is the difference between the international price of the grain, traded on the Chicago Stock Exchange, and the price paid for the physical product in Brazilian ports.
"There would be room for them to grow this demand from the US, if they saw fit. But I think the main element of this structural change in relation to the supplier has to do with building trust and delivery", says Wachholz.
According to the expert, Brazil has the capacity to increase its participation in the supply of soybeans to China and maintains a commercial relationship based on trust. This strengthens Brazil's position in the Chinese market.
For Wachholz, the risk for Brazil lies in the possibility of China expanding purchases of North American soybeans beyond the 25 million tons foreseen in the agreement.
“That could harm us, because our entire chain was built to serve that market,” he says.
"China's relationship with the United States is the most important geopolitical relationship that exists today. The fact that China is such a demanding market will always be an ace in the hole. So, it can always use this as a negotiating instrument", says Wachholz.
The president of the Brazilian Association of Soybean Producers (Aprosoja-MT), Lucas Costa Beber, considers it difficult for the USA to return to exporting more than 30 million tons of soybeans to China. He also assesses that Brazil's position is consolidated.
Last year, Brazil broke a record for soybean exports to China. In 2026, it has already shipped almost 64 million tons, according to Aprosoja.
The sales growth benefited the economy, says Wachholz. "This is what created income in the cities in the interior of Brazil. This is great, because it raises the level of development of the country as a whole. Soy is making up a good part of the Brazilian GDP", he says.
Soy exports also contribute to Brazil maintaining a trade surplus with China, which is rare, according to the expert.
self-reliant China
China wants to reduce its dependence on imported products. This is one of the priorities of the Five-Year Plan, a document that establishes the country's main economic and social goals for a period of five years.
The current plan envisages increasing Chinese production of foods of which Brazil is one of the main suppliers, such as soy, corn and meat.
According to the Systemiq report, investments and public policies have increased soybean productivity in China by 80% in the last 40 years. For Patrícia Ellen, Chinese goals represent a greater risk for Brazil than trade competition with the USA.
According to the consultancy's projections, Chinese soybean imports could fall by around 25% by 2030. Ellen explains that the reduction would be caused by a drop in demand for the grain. The share of soybean meal, for example, is expected to decrease from 14.5% to less than 10% by 2030.
"Basically, these 23.5 million tons of projected reduction are equivalent to practically all American soybean exports to China in 2024 or a third of Brazilian exports destined for the country that year", he states.
In addition to reducing the consumption of soybean meal, China intends to make cattle and chicken feeding more efficient and encourage the consumption of other sources of protein, such as fish. "These are big bets that involve investment in a lot of technology, public policies and very significant transitions", says Ellen.
China also intends to increase the use of synthetic amino acids and proteins produced by bacteria in animal feed, reducing the need for soybean meal in feed.
For Larissa Wachholz, it is important to monitor the speed with which China will be able to put these measures into practice. "Brazil would need to monitor whether the level of soybean productivity will increase or not. If it starts using transgenics, it will be able to achieve some productivity gains."
The expert advocates that the Brazilian sector monitor China's progress annually to assess whether it is worth continuing to increase soybean production. Another alternative would be to stimulate demand for grain-derived products, such as biofuels.
Beber, from Aprosoja, highlights that China is not always able to meet its goals and has increased the use of other grains, such as sorghum, in animal feed. "It is widely used and consumed in China. And sorghum bran ends up competing with soybean bran," he explains.
He also states that the production of synthetic amino acids uses soy and corn derivatives. Therefore, even with a reduction in bran consumption, the use of these components could open up new opportunities for grains.
For him, however, the biggest risk is China's low birth rate, which could reduce the population and, consequently, the demand for soybeans.
Departures to Brazil
For Larissa Wachholz, this dependence on Chinese purchases of soy represents a risk for Brazil. Still, the expert assesses that China also offers partnership opportunities for Brazilian agribusiness.
"Bringing technology in terms of biotechnology, seeds, inputs for agriculture, machinery products. As Brazil is a large market, we can use our size to attract investments from sectors that will help us become more competitive", he says.
Patrícia Ellen states that the soybean sector needs to rethink its production strategy and avoid expanding the agricultural area, so that supply does not grow beyond demand. "You don't create a productive surplus that won't be consumed in other markets."
She also advocates expanding the uses of soybeans, such as in the production of biofuels and oil, and seeking trade agreements with other markets, especially in Asia.
Lucas Beber, from Aprosoja, also sees opportunities in opening new markets, such as India, where population growth could increase demand for proteins and, consequently, for soy.
The country's search for alternatives with lower carbon emissions, such as biofuels, can also benefit soybean and corn producers. "There is a change in world culture also with the increase and importance of greater protein consumption, this is a great opportunity for Brazil", he says.
The president of Aprosoja also defends tax incentives to increase the consumption of biofuels in Brazil. According to him, the measure would help increase domestic demand for soybeans and corn and stimulate the national industry.
