Brazil's presidential election pits Lula against Bolsonaro's son amid foreign interference concerns

Brazilians are heading to the polls on Sunday in a hotly contested presidential election that could reshape the country’s domestic and foreign policy.

The race is dominated by incumbent left-wing President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and his right-wing challenger, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula is seeking a fourth nonconsecutive term in office. More than a dozen other candidates are also on the ballot.

Polls released on the eve of the election showed Lula and Bolsonaro neck and neck. Quaest put them at 46% and 45%, respectively, while Datafolha had Lula at 45% and Bolsonaro at 42%, with both surveys showing a statistical tie. If neither candidate wins more than half of votes, a runoff will be held on October 25. All other candidates are polling in the low single digits, but their endorsements could prove important in a second round.

Brazilians will also elect all 513 federal congress members, 54 of the country’s 81 senators, 27 governors and some regional legislatures.

Lula campaigned on his left-leaning Workers’ Party platform, promising continued welfare programs, state-funded development and income redistribution. He has framed the vote as a choice between “strengthening democracy and barbarism.”

Bolsonaro called for “change,” blaming Lula’s policies for high living costs and promising tougher security policies and tax cuts. The 45-year-old senator for Rio de Janeiro has also leaned heavily on the image of his father, known to supporters as “mito” – “the legend.”

Jair Bolsonaro, 71, was sentenced to 27 years behind bars over attempting to overturn the results of the 2022 presidential election, which he lost to Lula. He has denied wrongdoing. He spent several months in prison after breaking house arrest monitoring rules before being hospitalized in March 2026 over health issues and eventually transferred back to “temporary” house arrest that has since been extended.

Why does this vote matter?

Brazil is a founding member of BRICS and has played a prominent role in the group. Under Lula, Brasilia has pursued a policy focused on strengthening multipolarity and resisting Western pressure, particularly from Washington.

The Trump administration has placed renewed emphasis on US dominance in the Western Hemisphere under what it calls the “Donroe Doctrine,” a modern reinterpretation of the 19th-century hegemonic political strategy known as the Monroe Doctrine.

Washington has said it intends to strengthen US influence across the Americas while preventing rival powers, particularly China, from gaining strategic footholds there.

Opposing ‘colonization’

During his current term, Lula has repeatedly criticized the US over what he described as attempts to undermine multipolarity and impose its will on other nations.

Last year, India and Brazil stepped up talks on trade and investment after both countries were hit with 50% tariffs by the US. Lula also called for a coordinated BRICS response to Washington’s tariff policies, accusing Trump of attempts to “dismantle multilateralism” and promote “unilateralism, where he negotiates one-on-one with other countries.”

The Brazilian president also sharply condemned the US kidnapping of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in early 2026. In March, he proposed boosting defense cooperation with South Africa to reduce reliance on foreign weapons, arguing that both nations could be vulnerable to “invasion.”

In late September, he openly accused Trump of seeking to “colonize” Brazil and gain control of its natural resources. “What Trump wants is to colonize Brazil, to take our wealth, steal our future and leave us behind,” he stated at the time.

‘Trump’s candidate’?

Flavio Bolsonaro, whom Lula has described as “Trump’s candidate,” has emphasized his affinity with the US president and repeatedly praised him, while denying receiving assistance from Washington for his campaign. He has insisted that Brazil should seek better deals with the US, including on rare earth minerals – a topic that has been repeatedly invoked by US President Donald Trump in his talks with various nations, including Ukraine and Russia.

The senator also promised a “flood of investments” from the US if he wins. “Brazil and the United States will once again have a high-level and long-term relationship, including the largest trade and investment agreement in our history!” Bolsonaro wrote in a post on X in June.

He has also vowed to “truly combat Brazilian terrorist organizations and restore sovereignty to more than 50 million Brazilians who live in areas dominated by them,” without specifying which groups he meant.

Bolsonaro has also reportedly pledged to join the US campaign against drug cartels. The American military has at times targeted boats supposedly belonging to traffickers, killing dozens of people.

Shadow of interference

Brazilian authorities have opened a probe into allegations that the US government funded activities aimed at interfering in the election and undermining the legitimacy of the country’s Supreme Federal Court, Agencia Brasil reported on Friday.

That followed a report by the Guardian earlier in the week, claiming that the White House had planned to allocate $1 million for a project titled “Countering Lawfare and Censorship in Brazil.”

US social media giant Meta also blocked the advertising account on Facebook used by Lula’s campaign, preventing it from running new ads just days before the first round. The account was restored later the same day, with Meta providing no immediate explanation.

In September, Lula cited a confidential assessment by the Brazilian Intelligence Agency, which warned that a risk of US interference in the vote was allegedly at a “critical level.”

Trump avoided openly endorsing any candidates ahead of the elections but stated he was following the vote “very closely.”

“Brazil is a very important country. The people of Brazil are fantastic. These are very important elections,” he said on Thursday.

Moscow has expressed its hope that the Sunday vote would be held “without any adverse external interference.” “We are open to… continuing our cooperation with our Brazilian partners across the entire agenda,” the head of the Russian Foreign Ministry’s Latin American Department, Aleksandr Shetinin, told TASS.