Brent crude falls over $1 as Trump signals fresh US strikes on Iran are unlikely

Oil prices opened lower on Monday, with Brent crude briefly shedding more than $1 a barrel. The dip comes after US President Donald Trump said that fresh American strikes on Iran were "highly unlikely" if negotiations between the two countries made progress. Brent crude futures fell 52 cents, or 0.53%, to $97.80 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures slipped 15 cents, or 0.17%, to $90.68 a barrel. Trump's comments offered an indication that the US could avoid another round of military action against Iran, provided Tehran agreed to what he described as a strong deal. However, reports from both countries of shipping being hit in and around the Strait of Hormuz kept concerns over disruptions to the strategic waterway alive.

"It depends on whether or not they sign a very strong agreement," Trump told CNN in a phone interview. "The answer is, highly unlikely it's going to be necessary." In a 20-minute telephone interview with CNN, Trump repeated five times that renewed military intervention was unlikely if Iran made tangible progress in negotiations over its nuclear programme and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. The US president, however, warned that Washington had identified 38 Iranian bridges that could be destroyed within an hour if further military action became necessary. "We have 38 bridges in our site that we can knock down in literally one hour. They'll all be down," Trump told CNN.

The remarks come amid continued disruption to crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, which has now lasted for over eight months. The disruption has affected refinery operations across major Asian and Middle Eastern economies. According to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), global refinery activity fell sharply in the second quarter of 2026 after the Middle East conflict broke out. Data from energy intelligence firm Kpler showed that global refinery inputs dropped by 4.8 million barrels per day (b/d), or 6%, in April-June compared with the previous quarter. However, they recovered by 1.8 million b/d in the third quarter as refiners adapted to changing trade flows and alternative supply routes. Countries that rely heavily on crude supplies passing through the Strait of Hormuz were among the worst affected. China saw the biggest decline, with refinery inputs falling by 2.1 million b/d in the second quarter and a further 0.8 million b/d in the third quarter. India, South Korea and Japan together recorded a drop of more than 1 million b/d in crude oil inputs in the second quarter. Their combined inputs recovered by 0.8 million b/d in the following quarter.