Does the Democratic Progressive Party have a chance to win the mayor of Taipei again? Freelance writer and senior reporter in Taiwan Chris Horton published a comment in Nikkei Asia on the 22nd, analyzing their political styles and election strategies based on his past experience in interviewing KMT Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan and DPP candidate Shen Boyang. He also commented that Taipei is likely to elect a second mayor from the Democratic Progressive Party. If Jiang Wanan, "Beijing's preferred dialogue partner," is defeated, it may prompt China to re-evaluate its strategy towards Taiwan.
He Guisen believes that Shen Boyang focused his campaign on local municipalities, while Chiang Wanan and the Kuomintang once took Taipei's long-term blue political landscape for granted, and it was only recently that they began to face the pressure of the election campaign.
He Guisen recalled that in 2017, he interviewed Jiang Wanan, who had just been elected as a legislator at the time. The original interview time was one hour. For the first half hour, the two talked about Jiang Wanan's experience as a lawyer in Silicon Valley and how he discovered that he was related to the Chiang family, and the atmosphere was harmonious; but when the topic turned to China, Jiang Wanan looked at his watch and said that he had forgotten that he had other plans, and then apologized and left the meeting. He Guisen said that he tried several times to reschedule the interview afterwards, but still failed.
In 2018, He Guisen interviewed Shen Boyang, who was still a scholar at the time, to discuss China's disinformation and election manipulation. According to He Guisen's recollection, Shen Boyang took out a pen and paper drawing on the spot to explain Beijing's united front and information influence network. He Guisen compared the two interview experiences and criticized Jiang Wanan's reaction when facing China issues.
Shen Boyang focuses on municipal issues to win over voters
He Guisen analyzed that after Shen Boyang entered the Taipei mayoral election, he focused on municipal issues such as rodent infestation, flooding, kindergarten management disputes, and removal of street trees and trash cans, and rarely touched on cross-strait issues. He believes that this strategy has the opportunity for Shen Boyang to reach voters other than the traditional supporters of the DPP, including middle voters and some KMT supporters.
He Guisen also used the online program hosted by veteran media person Zhao Shaokang as an example, pointing out that the videos in which Shen Boyang was interviewed twice accumulated millions of views, while Jiang Wanan later appeared on the same program, and the videos only had tens of thousands of views. He also believed that Zhao Shaokang had different attitudes towards the two.
If Chiang loses, it will affect the 2028 election and may prompt Beijing to reassess its Taiwan strategy.
The article also mentioned a poll conducted by the Taipei Association for Democracy Trust, saying that Shen Boyang was in the lead. He Guisen also reasoned that if Chiang Wanan loses in this election, it may affect his political prospects for the 2028 presidential election, and may also cause Beijing to lose its preferred dialogue partner, prompting China to re-evaluate its strategy towards Taiwan, and impact cross-strait contacts. He regards this Taipei mayoral election as an important competition related to the political prospects of the Kuomintang, and believes that Taipei has the opportunity to elect the second Democratic Progressive Party mayor after Chen Shui-bian.
The poll cited by He Guisen showed that Shen Boyang was 17 percentage points ahead of Jiang Wanan. This survey was conducted by telephone interviews by Beacon Market Research Company. The survey period was from October 14 to 16, 2026. The interview subjects were people registered in Taipei City and over 20 years old. A total of 1,075 interviews were completed, including 753 residential phone calls and 322 mobile phone calls. The maximum sampling error is plus or minus 3 percentage points.
He Guisen emphasized that the above analysis is his personal observation and the final outcome of the election still depends on the decision of Taipei voters.
