Exposing Chiang Wanan’s nobility will hardly win the favor of central voters. Ye Yaoyuan: One mistake may lead to eternal hatred

TVBS released the latest Taipei mayoral election poll yesterday (8th). The gap between the current mayor Chiang Wanan who is seeking re-election and the Democratic Progressive Party candidate Shen Boyang is only single digits. Ye Yaoyuan, chair professor of international studies at the University of St. Thomas in the United States, pointed out that compared with Shen Boyang is approachable, while Jiang Wanan exudes a "noble spirit" from the inside out. Such a sense of distance may not necessarily attract the votes of the middle voters, and it is currently not seen that Jiang Wanan has the ability or at least the willingness to drive the election in other counties and cities. Ye Yaoyuan bluntly said that maybe they will not necessarily lose Taipei, but they may lose more counties and cities.

TVBS released the latest poll on the 8th, with support for Jiang Wanan at 49% and Shen Boyang at 41%. Shen Boyang originally trailed Jiang Wanan by nearly 30 percentage points, but now he is only in single digits. This poll also pointed out that the support for Shen Boyang among voters aged 20-29 rose from 37% in May to 52%, surpassing Jiang Wanan's 44%; and among voters who voted for Huang Shanshan in the last term, the proportion of voters who switched to Shen Boyang rose to 53%, higher than Jiang Wanan's 39%.

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This poll was conducted by the TVBS Public Opinion Survey Center on October 3, 2015, and from 18:30 to 22:00 in the evenings of October 5 to 7. A total of 1,284 Taipei citizens over the age of 20 were contacted. Among them, 164 refused to be interviewed, with a refusal rate of 12.8%. In the end, 1,120 valid samples were interviewed. At the 95% confidence level, the sampling error was within ±2.9 percentage points. The sampling method adopts random sampling with the last four digits of local telephone numbers and telephone interviews. All data are statistically weighted according to maternal gender, age, region, education level and other variables. The source of funding for the investigation is TVBS.

Ye Yaoyuan posted on Facebook that according to the latest TVBS poll, Jiang Wanan leads Shen Boyang by about 8 points. According to the institutional effect of TVBS, this lead can be discounted, so the gap between the two parties among the people who are willing to express their stance may not be big. But according to his understanding of Taipei voters, most of the people who have not yet expressed their support will vote for Chiang Wanan (after all, a bunch of KMT supporters don't want others to know that they support the KMT). Therefore, from the data point of view, if Shen Boyang has a chance, he needs to take the lead among the people who are willing to express their stance, in order to balance those potential KMT supporters who have not expressed their stance.

Ye Yaoyuan said that compared with Shen Boyang, who is approachable and willing to explain his political opinions and positions to the public in easy-to-understand expressions, Jiang Wanan seems more distant. This sense of distance does not mean that Jiang Wanan does not sweep the streets to solicit votes or have close contact with the people, but that Jiang Wanan reveals a "nobleness" from the inside out. Whether it is the nobility brought by his surname, his overly rigid and endlessly repetitive way of speaking, or his strange pauses in conversations, to some extent it gives people an "unreal" sense of nobility.

Ye Yaoyuan analyzed that such a sense of distance is actually a gain and a loss for Jiang Wanan. The winning part is that most Taipei voters are middle class or even at the top of Taiwan's wealth accumulation. Most of the aristocratic candidates proposed by the Kuomintang in the past (except for Lian Shengwen and Jiang Dazhou, who were affected) can achieve good results, whether it is Ma Ying-jeou or Chiang Wanan.

But at the same time, such nobility may not be able to attract votes from the middle voters. Especially in Ko Wenzhe's two Taipei mayoral elections, his "eccentricity" also attracted votes from the traditional non-blue camp. So to put it simply, although this sense of noble distance can consolidate the basic base, it may not win the favor of young voters or the majority of middle voters.

Ye Yaoyuan pointed out that at present, it seems that Jiang Wanan’s election strategy is to continue to maintain this sense of noble distance. Therefore, he will not normally respond to questions from reporters or the public in public, and will not want to break out of the stratosphere. Instead, he will only repeat the political achievements that he believes are valuable in his comfort zone, or the speeches prepared by his staff in advance. This makes him look very rigid, very lifeless, and without any bright spots in all his responses.

Ye Yaoyuan emphasized, "I don't know Jiang Wanan, so I don't know whether the reason behind his code of conduct is that he himself has no ability to react on the spot, or he thinks that if he keeps reading the draft, he will win the love of the people." "This noble sense of distance is not necessarily useful, and when you face a more active and approachable candidate who is more motivated and willing to break through the circle to interact with the alien world, Jiang Wanan's strategy may lose the support of the majority of middle voters and young voters." But what’s interesting is that no matter what others say, or even what Lanying’s own friendly forces remind him, Jiang Wanan doesn’t seem to want to change his behavior.

Ye Yaoyuan said that the logic behind this is probably that Taipei only needs to have a "blue is greater than green" base. Even if they give up the majority of median voters, they should still be able to achieve a "small victory." This kind of assessment may not be too wrong, but it is still possible that one mistake will lead to eternal regrets. Once more than 80% of the median voters move to Shen Boyang's side, it will be difficult to say that this "blue is greater than green" basic base can guarantee your victory.

Another more important thing is that Shen Boyang is not just helping himself in the Taipei mayoral election. He is also driving the election in other counties and cities through ocean currents, helping the Democratic Progressive Party gain more seats in this nine-in-one mid-term general election. However, although the Kuomintang has so many stars, and Jiang Wanan can even be said to be the young leader of ZTE, it does not see that Jiang Wanan has the ability or at least the willingness to drive the election in other counties and cities. If the KMT wants to rely on Cheng Lai-wen to do this, the KMT's difficult constituencies may become even more difficult.

Ye Yaoyuan analyzed that Jiang Wanan, who has a relatively good image, did not take on this responsibility and did not try to lead a campaign centering on himself. This is because Jiang Wanan himself does not want to, his ability is limited, or his campaign team feels that these matters have nothing to do with them. The Kuomintang, like the Democratic Progressive Party, has many factions, but after the fighting in the party's primaries, the Democratic Progressive Party will unite. However, the Kuomintang often continues to hunt each other, and the word unity seems to be completely non-existent. This is why Jiang Wanan seems to always only interact with these Taipei City Legislators and city government teams, but has no interaction with the Kuomintang people in other counties and cities.

Ye Yaoyuan said bluntly that if Jiang Wanan wants to challenge for the top position in 2028 or 2032, his current behavior and abilities are still far behind. Ye Yaoyuan is not sure what Jiang Wanan is thinking, nor is he sure why his team is so short-sighted. But if they continue to fight this election campaign with this complacency, they may not necessarily lose Taipei, but they may lose more counties and cities. Of course, Ye Yaoyuan was completely happy to see this result, and he was even more happy to see Shen Boyang win Taipei. It’s just that as a political scientist who has been observing elections and campaign strategies for many years, I don’t understand why they are so ignorant of progress.

Ye Yaoyuan emphasized, "I am happy to see them continue to show off or put forward contradictory political opinions. This behavior of throwing dirty water on Shen Boyang will make the central voters hate the Kuomintang even more, but if they think this is their only trick, then I don't know what to say."