Informed sources told Reuters that Gianni Infantino, president of the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA), can count on enough votes to remain in the position, which means that his opponents will need to change their strategy and focus on limiting his powers, in a major shift after weeks of prominent figures in the world of football believing that his position is unstable.
A global football source with direct knowledge of the discussions between senior officials said: “Three weeks ago, I thought he was done.”
He added: “What I did not realize was the strength of the relationships he built after 10 years in office, which are almost unbreakable.”
Infantino's presidency faced its biggest challenge this summer after his proposal to sell a 20 percent stake in FIFA competitions, including the World Cup, to private investors collapsed.
The plan sparked strong opposition, and the European Union (UEFA), the Asian Confederation, and the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean (Concacaf) were among those calling for a change in FIFA's leadership. Several European national federations withdrew their support for Infantino's re-election, the latest of which was France, on Thursday.
Although he regretted what he described as a “sad and disgraceful series of events” that led to the project being abandoned, FIFA Secretary General Matthias Grafström later confirmed his full support for Infantino after a crisis meeting in Rabat.
But as the immediate crisis subsides, electoral calculations become more difficult, opponents of Infantino's re-election say.
No competitor has emerged capable of mustering sufficient support across FIFA's 211 member associations before the March elections, while Infantino maintains strong support among smaller countries and important blocs outside Europe.
At the FIFA Congress, each national association will have one vote, meaning any successful challenge will require an alliance that goes well beyond UEFA's 55 members.
This puts his opponents before potentially dangerous calculations. Challenging Infantino and losing to him may strengthen his grip on FIFA instead of weakening it.
The source said: “I think the course of things has changed.” “It has become dangerous for UEFA to resort to voting and not win.”
Reuters contacted UEFA and FIFA. For comment.
Nasser Al-Khelaifi, the president of Paris Saint-Germain, is seen by senior football figures as one of the few potential candidates capable of forming the transcontinental alliance needed to defeat Infantino.
Sources familiar with the situation believe that Al-Khelaifi will pose a serious challenge, but he has ruled out the candidacy, saying through his spokesman that he has no ambition, intention or interest in becoming FIFA president.
Another football source told Reuters that the president of the North, Central American and Caribbean Football Confederation, Victor Montagliani, was another name being bandied about, but he did not consider running without first believing he had enough support to win.
The same source said that the arena did not witness any other strong candidate, although it is possible that an African or Asian candidate could be presented before the deadline of November 18.
Even among the confederations that still support Infantino, there have been calls for stronger governance, greater transparency and stricter controls over key commercial decisions at FIFA.
The extent of Infantino's continued support is evident from Oceania, where Steve Lygle, president of the New Caledonia Football Association, said that most federation presidents still strongly support him.
“Most of the presidents of the Oceania federations expressed their support for Mr. Infantino,” Liegel told Reuters. We will support him until the end.”
Liegel said that Infantino ensured the loyalty of small federations by taking care of their needs and helping to develop the game.
“When we give our word, when we are loyal to someone, we remain loyal to the end,” he said.
A senior source in the Confederation of African Football (CAF) stated that the mood in Africa is similar. He said that the vast majority of federation presidents remain satisfied with Infantino, and believe that continued support will lead to increased development financing.
The source said that none of the presidents of the African federations he knows has expressed any concern, like Europe, regarding the proposal to sell a stake in the World Cup.
Morocco, one of the most influential federations in Africa, was among Infantino's public supporters.
A senior CAF source told Reuters that some people working in African football believe that the president of the Moroccan Federation, Faouzi Lekkaa, received a promise to host the 2030 World Cup final in exchange for his help in maintaining African support for Infantino.
FIFA denied reports that Morocco had been promised to host the final match in exchange for political support.
Lakjaa said that the match will be held in Casablanca, although FIFA has not officially announced its headquarters.
Infantino also maintains the support of the South American Confederation (CONMEBOL), while CAF remains supportive of it, despite the Asian Confederation and CONCACAF joining UEFA in calling for change.
France clarified the opposition's dilemma on Thursday by withdrawing its support for Infantino without specifying who would replace him.
“The trust given to the FIFA president has collapsed,” French Football Federation President Philippe Diallo told reporters after the executive committee unanimously decided to withdraw its support on Thursday.
Diallo said: “Our task now is to ensure that a program and a candidate emerge, and then through that program and that candidate, to ensure his victory.”
Candidates must be submitted by November 18, leaving just over two months to agree on an alternative platform, identify someone willing to run, and gather commitments around the world.
Diallo said: “The project cannot be purely European, but must bring together all continents.”
In the absence of a clear competitor, some of Infantino's opponents are considering whether they should turn their efforts towards changing FIFA's governance structure.
The two global sources said that officials are studying whether it is possible to reduce or redistribute the powers concentrated in the presidency if they conclude that overtaking Infantino is not possible at the ballot box.
This would represent a significant change from the situation weeks ago, when prominent figures believed that the crisis surrounding the investment proposal that FIFA amended could end Infantino’s presidency.
Instead, attention could be directed towards imposing stronger controls on key strategic and commercial decisions and rebalancing power within FIFA's leadership.
Diallo confirmed that the distribution of power within FIFA was among the issues under discussion.
In response to a question about suggestions that some powers could be withdrawn from the president and given to an appointed Secretary-General, he said: “This is part of the discussion that we now need to engage in within UEFA.”
Officials say attention may shift to restricting the president's powers rather than removing Infantino in the absence of a candidate capable of turning the European opposition into a global coalition.
The FIFA presidential elections will be held in Rabat on March 18, 2027.
