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Back德语媒体:美国对华政策将更趋强硬?
德语媒体:美国对华政策将更趋强硬?
Politics
德国之声35 minutes agoPolitics5 min readChinaView translation

德语媒体:美国对华政策将更趋强硬?

《商报》分析美国国会可能采取更强硬的对华立场;《南德意志报》关注英伟达总裁黄仁勋在中美人工智能竞争中的敏感地位。

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《商报》评论认为美国中期选举后国会将推动更强硬的对华贸易政策;《南德意志报》则指出英伟达总裁黄仁勋因其在中美人工智能竞争中的特殊角色及相关争议而陷入敏感境地。

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

美国中期选举后,民主党获得多数席位,预计将对华采取更强硬的贸易与投资限制政策。英伟达作为高性能芯片制造商,处于中美人工智能技术竞争的中心。

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(德国之声中文网)《商报》客座评论认为,随着民主党在中期选举中大获全胜,美国国会可能会出台一系列新法规,以推动更具对抗性的对华立场,世界应为此做好准备。这篇题为《美国对欧政策不会发生变化》的评论写道:

“尽管在本次中期选举中,对华政策根本就不是一项竞选议题,但强硬的对华立场却在民主和共和两党内拥有广泛基础。无论是对民主党,还是对部分共和党人来说,这都是一个同特朗普划清界线的机会。因为在华盛顿,很多人都认为特朗普总统在中国问题上一直过于软弱迁就。具体而言,未来可能出台的新措施包括:以人权为依据的贸易限制、非关税性的进出口管制以及对中国在美直接投资设置更多障碍。

预计,华盛顿的贸易政策将会出现两种取向截然相反的立法倡议:面对加拿大的贸易政策将趋于自由化,并批评特朗普迄今为止过度对抗的做法。而针对中国的贸易政策则将更具有保护主义色彩,并会批评特朗普对中国过度宽容。

虽然可以想象美国会推出更加合乎逻辑的贸易和安全战略:有针对性地对盟友开放市场的同时,对中国实施进一步的封锁,但这并不是最有可能出现的结果。

真正具有决定性意义的,是未来民主党多数派地位所产生的推动力。民主党拥有至少54个席位,在个案表决中,完全有望获得部分共和党议员的支持,从而达到立法所需的60席门槛。有时甚至可能会达到足以否决总统指令的67席多数。

与此同时,特朗普对共和党候选人产生的负面影响也使一些参议员面临着同特朗普划清界限的压力,对那些希望在2028年成为总统候选人的政治家们尤为如此。

而对华强硬以及改善美加关系,恰恰又是能让民主共和两党同时获益的议题。”

《商报》评论指出,同美加关系和对华贸易政策相比,美国并不存在一个具有足够政治影响力的选民群体,要求降低欧洲对美出口商品的关税。因此,从欧洲的角度来看,此次中期选举,并不会带来美国贸易保护主义政策的根本性变化:

“此次中期选举,或许是民主制度以及民主党的胜利,但此次选举对贸易政策的有限改变却足以说明,美国政界和选民之间仍存在巨大的鸿沟。

无论是保留大多数关税,还是继续推进同多数盟友的经济冲突,或者让中美冲突进一步升级,凡此种种,都没有得到选民的明确授权。相反,上述政策导致的购买力和国防能力的下降,恰恰违背了选民的优先诉求:降低通胀、结束战争、手头多一点余钱。”

“陷入中美夹缝的黄仁勋”

《南德意志报》就英伟达总裁黄仁勋卷入“桃色新闻”一事发表评论写道:

“如果相关报道属实,那么这一事件的敏感性还在于,英伟达恰恰处在中美两国人工智能竞争的夹缝之中。这家总部设在加州的企业,主要研发和生产人工智能所需的高性能芯片。正是凭借这些芯片,英伟达赚得钵满盆满,已经跻身全球市值最高企业的行列。英伟达的客户包括谷歌、微软等美国高科技巨头,而中国企业也对英伟达产品有着浓厚的兴趣。

不过,美国政府推出的出口管制,则禁止英伟达向中国出售最先进芯片。美国政府希望以此阻止中国在人工智能的研发领域超越美国。美国方面认为,人工智能是一个涉及国家安全的议题。借助人工智能,网络攻击将能实现质的飞跃。

黄仁勋则是一个穿梭于中美之间的人物。现年63岁的黄仁勋出生在台湾,九岁时来到美国。他同时拥有美国和台湾国籍,并经常前往东亚。除了英语之外,他也会讲中文。英伟达在股市上的出色表现,早已使黄仁勋成了世界最富有人士之一。黄仁勋同特朗普总统也保持着密切的关系。今年九月,特朗普总统设国宴欢迎中国国家主席习近平来访时,黄仁勋及其夫人Lori 就是受邀嘉宾。

黄仁勋曾对特朗普开展游说,希望他放宽对英伟达的出口限制。最终黄如愿以偿,2025年底,特朗普准许英伟达向中国出售性能略微过时的芯片。不过,附加条件则是英伟达必须向政府上缴25%的销售利润。回过头来,这场游说也需要另眼看待了。”

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 美国国会将出台更多针对中国人工智能领域的出口管制措施。

    Likely · Within months

Open Questions

  • 美国国会后续将出台哪些具体的对华贸易限制法规?
  • 黄仁勋涉及的争议对英伟达的市场表现有何具体影响?

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This article was originally published by 德国之声.

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