
Apac and Inmet release forecast for Serra Talhada, Caruaru, Garanhuns and Arcoverde; El Niño strengthens and could reach a very strong category
AI-generated summary
The heat recorded in Pernambuco occurs amid the strengthening of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean. A technical note from Apac points out that the climate forecast for the quarter from October to December 2026 indicates above-average temperatures throughout the state, with the possibility of worsening drought and reducing soil moisture. The Realigned El Niño Index (RONI) went from +1.4°C in the quarter from June to August to +1.7°C between July and September this year.
In Serra Talhada, in the Sertão, thermometers can reach up to 39°C on Saturday. On Sunday, the predicted maximum is 37°C. In Caruaru and Garanhuns, in Agreste, temperatures can reach 34°C on both days.
Despite the heat, there is the possibility of rapid and isolated rain in different regions of the state. According to Apac, in Agreste, rainfall should occur mainly during the afternoon and evening of Saturday, with low intensity.
In Sertão and Sertão do São Francisco, there is also a forecast of rain between the afternoon and evening, with light to moderate intensity. In Mata Sul, the possibility is of quick and light rain during the early hours of the morning.
According to Inmet, in Caruaru, the temperature should vary between 21°C and 33°C on Saturday. On Sunday, the minimum remains at 21°C, while the maximum can reach 34°C. Lots of clouds and isolated rain showers are forecast.
In Garanhuns, thermometers should read between 20°C and 33°C on Saturday. On Sunday, the maximum can also reach 34°C, with a minimum of 21°C. The forecast indicates many clouds and the possibility of isolated rain showers.
In Serra Talhada, the temperature can vary between 22°C and 39°C on Saturday. On Sunday, the predicted maximum is 37°C, with a minimum of 23°C. There is a possibility of isolated showers and thunderstorms.
In Arcoverde, the forecast is for a minimum of 20°C and a maximum of 35°C on Saturday. On Sunday, thermometers should vary between 21°C and 33°C. There is also a possibility of isolated rain showers.
The heat recorded in Pernambuco occurs amid the strengthening of El Niño, a climate phenomenon characterized by the warming of surface waters in the Equatorial Pacific Ocean.
A technical note from Apac points out that the climate forecast for the quarter from October to December 2026 indicates above-average temperatures throughout the state, with the possibility of worsening drought and reducing soil moisture.
According to the agency, the Realigned El Niño Index (RONI) went from +1.4°C in the quarter from June to August to +1.7°C between July and September this year.
According to Apac, the speed of warming increases the possibility of the phenomenon reaching the very strong category in the coming weeks.
The intensity of impacts on Pernambuco also depends on conditions in the Tropical Atlantic Ocean. The interaction between the two oceans influences the distribution of rainfall in the Northeast, especially during periods of El Niño.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
El Niño could reach the very strong category in the coming weeks.
Possible · Within weeks
Temperatures above average throughout the state of Pernambuco in the quarter from October to December 2026, with the possibility of worsening drought.
Likely · Within months

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