Current account balance gave surplus for the third month in a row

According to data compiled by the AA correspondent, Turkey's current account balance had a deficit of 4 billion 477 million dollars in June.

Türkiye's current account, which later changed direction, gave a surplus of 201 million dollars in July, 4 billion 578 million dollars in August and 2 billion 720 million dollars in September.

Türkiye's current account thus continued its positive course for the third consecutive month.

AA Finance Analyst and Economist Haluk Bürümcekçi said, "The main factors in the improvement observed in the current account balance in September were the foreign trade deficit being below last year and the increase in service revenues." he said.

Stating that the Ministry of Commerce data, which is an important leading indicator for imports and exports, shows that there will be a decrease in the foreign trade deficit in October compared to the previous year, Bürümcekçi said, "In addition to the improvement in the headline data in September, it is observed that the non-energy current balance, which is followed in terms of the basic trend of the current balance, improved with a surplus of 8 billion dollars, and the non-energy and gold (core) current account balance improved with a surplus of 7.3 billion dollars compared to the same month of the previous year." he said.

Bürümcekçi said that the high average energy prices kept the upside risks alive and that the negative effects of the war on transportation revenues and travel (tourism) revenues remained limited, contrary to expectations.

Stating that the decline in gold prices and the significant decrease in gold imports compared to last year also contributed to the current account balance, Bürümcekçi said, "In this regard, while we revised our year-end current account deficit forecast downwards to 40 billion dollars, we should state that the risks on this forecast are balanced." he said.

Core current account balance stood out as a positive signal

Kuveyt Türk Investment Research Director Kutay Gözgör also stated that the current account surplus was maintained for the third month in a row and that there was a more limited increase compared to the surplus of 4.58 billion dollars recorded in August.

Noting that despite the end of the tourism season, service revenues maintained their strong course and the contraction in the foreign trade deficit supported the positive outlook in the current account balance, Gözgör stated that the current account excluding gold and energy (core current account balance) gave a surplus of 7.3 billion dollars in September, standing out as a positive signal in terms of the basic trend of the external balance.

When the sub-items of the current account balance are examined, Gözgör stated that the positive contribution of the services balance to the current account balance continued in September and said, "Despite the end of the tourism season, the services balance continued to support the current account balance with the strong course of travel revenues and the support of transportation revenues. On the other hand, the contraction in the foreign trade deficit on a monthly basis was effective in the current account surplus." he said.

In addition, Gözgör said that the decline in the annualized current account deficit to 39.2 billion dollars indicates that the improvement in the external balance continues, albeit moderately, and noted that the high outflow in portfolio investments and the decrease in official reserves are at the forefront as developments that need to be closely monitored on the financing side.

Gözgör said, "In this context, although there was a current account surplus in September and the annualized deficit decreased, leading foreign trade data for October indicates that we may encounter a more limited outlook in the current account balance in the last quarter of the year." he said.