Brazilian beef will face a 67% tariff in China after the quota is exhausted

Brazilian beef will pay a total tariff of 67% to enter the Chinese market starting this Thursday (1st). An additional charge of 55% will be added to the regular tariff of 12%, since Brazil has exhausted the annual export quota stipulated by the Asian country.

The measure worries slaughterhouses and livestock farmers, who are already considering bringing forward slaughter and shipments to take advantage of the 2027 quota.

Brazil has reached the limit of 1.106 million tons scheduled for 2026. For next year, the quota increases to 1.128 million tons, but sector representatives estimate that the new limit could be reached in March or April 2027.

Immediate impact

The Asian country is the main destination for Brazilian beef and has gained significant space in the sector's exports in the last decade.

From 2016 to 2025, Brazil sent 8.2 million tons of beef to China, generating US$42.3 billion. The volume jumped from 164.9 thousand tons in 2016 to 1.6 million tons in 2025.

The concentration of sales in the Chinese market increases the sector's concern about the effects of the surcharge on the cash flow of slaughterhouses.

Strategy for 2027

Faced with the prospect of the next quota being quickly exhausted, the Brazilian Association of Meat Exporting Industries (Abiec) discusses the possibility of companies bringing forward production and shipments:

slaughters can be carried out in October;

shipments are scheduled for November;

the sea journey between the two countries takes 40 to 45 days;

The expectation is that the meat will arrive in China in January 2027.

The strategy would make it possible to use next year's quota at the beginning of its validity. The pace of Chinese purchases, however, will also be decisive for business.

Pressure on refrigerators

According to Abiec, the effects of the restriction began before the quota was officially exhausted. In recent months, meatpacking companies have reduced sales to China and have had to look for buyers in other markets.

The entity also once again discussed with the government a division of the 2027 quota among slaughterhouses. The proposal seeks to distribute shipments throughout the year and prevent a few companies from concentrating the available volume.

On Tuesday (29), China authorized two more Brazilian units to export beef: one from Minas Gerais and the other from Pernambuco.

Chinese protectionism

China adopted the quota system as a measure to protect the internal market in the face of increased imports. The surcharge is not exclusive to Brazil and affects other suppliers.

The Chinese market is still facing a scenario of lower beef prices and increased domestic supply. Chinese imports of the product grew from less than 1.5 million tons in 2018 to around 2.8 million tons in recent years.

Brazil now accounts for more than 40% of the volume imported by China.

The change occurs at a time of greater attention from the Brazilian sector to the conditions of access to the Chinese market. Abiec estimates that total beef exports from Brazil in 2026 will fall by around 10% compared to 2025, in a scenario that also includes restrictions adopted by the European Union.