(Seoul = Yonhap News) Reporter Shinyoung Lee = The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) pointed out on the 20th (local time) that as weapons stockpiles are depleted due to the prolongation of the war with Iran, doubts are growing in the international community about whether the United States is capable of maintaining world order as much as before.
Since President Donald Trump came to power, doubts have been growing about whether the United States has the will to help its allies, and with the depletion of weapons revealing the limits of its hard power, there are concerns that it may be running out of will and ability.
In the senior foreign policy reporter's security column reported on this day, WSJ pointed out that America's allies have been concerned about America's intentions ever since the inauguration of the Trump administration.
There has been growing doubt about whether the United States can continue to be trusted as it moves closer to Russia and pressures its allies with increased defense spending and high tariffs.
WSJ pointed out that even if the United States has the will to defend its alliance, its ability to do so has become doubtful due to the depletion of its arsenal due to the war with Iran.
Matthew Kronig, a senior researcher at the Atlantic Council, an American think tank, said, “Deterrence is a matter of capability and reliability,” and added, “If in the past there were questions about whether the U.S. would really do that and its reliability, now it has become an important question whether it has the ability to do so.”
WSJ pointed out that the series of actions by the United States, including unilaterally reducing joint military exercises between South Korea and the United States and proposing dialogue to North Korea, are recent examples that have raised doubts about the United States' ability and will to defend its alliance.
It is pointed out that while North Korea is closely working with Russia and putting pressure on Europe by supplying troops and ballistic missiles to the war in Ukraine, it defined North Korea as a non-threatening country and unilaterally reduced the scale of the training on the day it began.
WSJ also pointed out that the fact that a large number of U.S. military strategic assets deployed in Asia have been moved to the Middle East due to the prolongation of the war with Iran, and that the production of ballistic missiles in Russia, China, and North Korea is outpacing the production of interceptor missiles in the U.S. also adds to concerns.
It is reported that skepticism is growing not only in Asia but also in Europe as to whether the United States will come to the defense if Russia attacks.
According to WSJ, Roderich Kiesewetter, a member of the Christian Democratic Party (CDU) and a former colonel in the German Bundeswehr, said, "Everyone knows that the United States will not risk its own security for the sake of the Baltic states or Germany," and added, "The United States' nuclear umbrella is gone."
The United States is countering externally by saying that the depletion of weapons is not true.
But there are continued warnings that key weapons stocks are running dangerously low and that it could take years to replenish them.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a U.S. think tank, estimates that half of the stocks of key air defense weapons, the Patriot interceptor missile and THAAD (Terminal High Altitude Area Defense), have already been used up, and about one-third of the Tomahawk and long-range air-to-ground cruise missile JASSM have been used.
There are also concerns that a weapons shortage could lead to an inability to protect allies and friends from strategic competitors.
An expert report from the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) released this month said, "The United States' weapons stockpile has been depleted and it no longer has the ability to deter China's attack on Taiwan," and warned that the United States must immediately switch to a wartime regime and begin mass production of missiles, and that waiting until a conflict begins will be too late.
John View, a professor of war studies at King's College London, said, "There is a risk of a serious crisis occurring in several battlefields due to the lack of interceptor missiles and missile defense systems. This will not only have an immediate impact in the Gulf region, but is also recognized as a major deficiency in the defense of Europe and could have potentially serious consequences in Asia."
However, WSJ also reported the views of Asian experts who say that there is little possibility of an all-out war breaking out in East Asia for the time being. .
“People will be worried, but military supplies will be replenished,” said Singapore political analyst Bilahari Kaushikan. “There is virtually no chance of a large-scale conflict breaking out in East Asia for the time being.”
He explained the reason, saying, "China has numerous domestic problems that must be resolved first, and it does not take reckless gambles, especially when it comes to the Taiwan issue."
Ludovic Hood, a senior researcher at the Hudson Institute, argued that the revelation of the shortcomings of the missile defense system in the Iran war actually had a positive side.
“This kind of awareness was necessary considering the fact that Western powers have been prone to letting their guard down over the past few decades,” he said. “Having to go to war is not a pleasant experience, but it may be an opportunity to prepare for much more difficult strategic situations in the future.”
