◎ Xiao Xihui
In the 2026 Taipei mayoral election, "Ocean Current" has become an important political symbol of Shen Boyang's camp.
When Shen Boyang registered to run for the election on September 2, he was accompanied by former President Tsai Ing-wen. He used the rudder to symbolize the campaign, indicating that to move forward, a ship needs not only the person at the helm, but also wind and "ocean currents." Since then, the media has reported on the gathering of people from Linjiang Street, Gongguan to Yansan Night Market and other street sweeping activities, and the "ocean current" has gradually changed from online voices to actual visible crowds.
Please read on...
When former President Tsai Ing-wen accompanied Shen Boyang to register for the election on September 2, she used the rudder to symbolize the election campaign, indicating that in order for a ship to move forward, it not only needs a person at the helm, but also wind and "ocean currents." (File photo)
However, are crowds votes? This is the real issue in the election.
What Qian Gua in the Book of Changes talks about is actually not the formula for success all the way up, but how people grasp opportunities at different stages. "Don't use the hidden dragon" is to build momentum; "See the dragon in the field" is to walk into the crowd and start to be seen; to "work all day long", even if the momentum is gradually building, you still have to be cautious and work hard; "Maybe leap into the abyss" is the key to whether you can overcome the original pattern. Even when it comes to "Flying Dragon in the Sky", the Qian Gua ends with "A dragon has regrets" as a reminder: the closer you get to the peak, the less you can mistake momentum for victory.
In this election campaign, the crowds brought by the "ocean current" are just the formation of momentum, not the result.
The opening chapter of the Qian hexagram is "Yuan Henry Zhen", in which "Zhen" means keeping upright and firm. The same goes for elections. Momentum can be formed quickly, but credit can only be accumulated over a long period of time. Whether promises can be kept, whether policies can be explained clearly, whether what has been said can be held accountable, and whether previous and subsequent statements can stand the test are all the criteria by which voters evaluate candidates.
Honesty and credibility are not a campaign slogan, but an important foundation for gaining the trust of voters and winning elections.
Taipei is often nicknamed the "Celestial Dragon Kingdom" because of its unique political and electoral structure. The DPP did not fail to break through 40%: Chen Shui-bian was elected with 43.67% in 1994 and 45.91% in 1998; Hsieh Chang-ting 40.89% in 2006 and Su Zhenchang 43.81% in 2010. Therefore, 40% is not a high wall that cannot be overcome, but crossing 40% does not mean victory.
The real question is: where will the votes after 40% come from?
A poll conducted by the Xinmin Cross-Strait Research Association on September 22 showed that Jiang Wanan had 41.7% and Shen Boyang 40.5%, a gap of 1.2 percentage points. In the cross-analysis, 89.4% of DPP supporters expressed support for Shen Boyang. Those aged 20 to 49 were more inclined to Shen Boyang, and those over 50 were more inclined to Jiang Wanan; another 42% of the respondents expressed their hope to "change to the DPP and give it a try." These numbers cannot be directly converted into final votes, but they present the issue after 40%: in addition to existing supporters, whether it is possible to gain the trust of voters of different ages, different party identities, and undecided voters.
The latest Taipei mayoral election poll released by the Trustees Association shows that the current Taipei Mayor Chiang Wanan received 41.7% support, while Shen Boyang received 40.5%, with a gap of 1.2% between the two sides. (File photo)
This is just like the Qian hexagram "or leap into the abyss" - it has accumulated a certain amount of strength, but has not yet truly jumped over.
Before 40%, you can rely on consolidating existing support; after 40%, the test is to expand outward. It is not to make those who already support more enthusiastic, but to make those who have no support want to re-understand the candidates, compare policies, and then make their own choices.
Shen Boyang himself said: "Our ultimate goal is of course to win the election." He also said that he wanted to "convert the good reviews on the Internet into physical votes." Facing the "ocean current" of people, he also emphasized: "The election is about convincing more people."
Therefore, what the "ocean current" really wants to cross is not just the 40% in the polls, but the boundaries of the existing support circle.
Night markets can be full, the Internet can be buzzing, and polls can rise, but there is no "crowd vote" or "voice vote" in elections.
What the Qian Gua reminds us is not how to predict victory or defeat, but that you still need to be on the right track when you have momentum, and you still need to be cautious when you are making progress. From "may jump in the abyss" to "flying dragon in the sky", what really needs to be crossed in the middle is the trust of voters.
Momentum can be gathered; trust must be maintained; votes count.
What the "Ocean Current" really wants to cross is not just the 40% in the polls, but the boundaries of the existing support circles. (File photo)
(The author is a freelance writer)
