How will Donald Trump's last two years in the White House go? This is, in essence, the question that the Americans will decide during the mid-term elections, organized on Tuesday, November 3. Voters are called upon to express themselves in numerous local elections, and to renew a large part of the two chambers that make up Congress. A victory for the Democrats, predicted by the polls, would poison the life of the populist president. But the game is still far from over. Franceinfo explains everything you need to know about this political meeting.
What exactly are midterms?
The midterms are the elections organized two years after the last presidential election, and two years before the next one. This is a flagship meeting in American politics, the only one where voters from across the country are called upon to express themselves during a presidential term. These elections are systematically organized on the first Tuesday in November. Some states, including Minnesota and Virginia, allow early voting, while others, such as California, allow mail-in voting.
A multitude of ballots are organized simultaneously on Tuesday, November 3. Traditionally unfavorable to the president in place, the midterms will first decide the majority that will control Congress until the end of Donald Trump's term. The Americans will thus renew all 435 seats in the House of Representatives, where the Republicans currently have a narrow majority, with 218 seats. Emblematic elected officials sit there, such as Democrat Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez or conservative Mike Johnson, President of the House.
They will also decide on the renewal of part of the Senate – currently with a Republican majority – where each American state is represented by two elected officials. A little more than a third (35) of the 100 seats are up for grabs this time.
Added to this are a myriad of local elections. In total, more than 40,000 positions will be renewed on Tuesday, according to the company BallotReady. Millions of Americans will vote to choose their sheriffs, their elected officials at the state level, as well as their judges. Some will also speak on referendums, the questions of which range from the protection of abortion to taxes, including the method of voting. In total, voters will also elect 39 governors (including three in territories that are not states).
What are the themes covered during the campaign?
Mid-term elections are generally akin to a referendum for or against the policy pursued by the power in place. The figure of Donald Trump, who personalized the exercise of power as rarely before him, logically looms over the vote. The Republican is particularly unpopular: only 31% of Americans approve of the billionaire's action, according to a Reuters poll published on October 19. “A large part of the problem comes from inflation, the price of gasoline, the cost of shopping, the general economic situation. The situation has not improved under Donald Trump,” points out Hans Noel, professor of political science at Georgetown University in Washington.
The United States' getting stuck in the war against Iran, launched in February, doesn't help matters. Among part of the electorate, the brutality of the administration, in particular "the aggressive anti-immigration policy carried out by" the police, does not go down either, notes Hans Noel. Aware of his unpopularity, Donald Trump has multiplied his promises, to the point of committing, in September, to sending $5,000 checks to all American adults in the event of a Republican victory. A promise of dubious legality, and impossible to keep financially.
What do the polls say?
The vast majority of opinion polls are very favorable to Democrats. The NBC News poll aggregator thus predicts a victory for the Progressive Party in the House of Representatives, giving it up to 227 seats, while 219 are necessary to obtain a majority.
Compiling surveys on voting intentions, NBC News also considers it likely that the Democrats will have at least 49 seats in the Senate, and classifies five others as "uncertain", that is to say could swing from one side to the other. Winning two of these five seats would therefore give the party of ex-presidents Barack Obama and Joe Biden a majority. Which would be an all the more impressive performance given that the majority of the 35 senatorial seats at stake for these midterms are in traditionally conservative states.
“The Democratic wave might not be as big as some polls suggest, but it is almost certain that they will take control of the House of Representatives,” explains Hans Noel. “In addition to the polls, if we analyze the press, the campaign and the speeches, we observe a very clear movement towards the Democrats,” adds Ludivine Gilli, specialist in the United States and director of the North America observatory of the Jean-Jaurès foundation. The Republicans are even threatened in some of their historic strongholds, such as “Texas, Kansas and Iowa”, points out the specialist.
What are the elections to follow?
Media attention is focused on the Senate elections, the outcome of which is more uncertain, and in particular on the seats that could swing the majority to the Democratic side. They are found in the “swing states”, these “pivot states” without a clear political majority, but also in states traditionally won by conservatives. Thus, in Texas, which has not had a Democratic senator since 1988, the progressive James Talarico is currently leading the voting intentions against the Republican Kevin Paxton.
"A Democratic victory [in Texas] would represent a major upset. Even if it is temporary, it will be a historic event."
Hans Noel, professor of political science at Georgetown University
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In Maine, the victory of outgoing Republican candidate Susan Collins, hardly compatible with Donald Trump, would show that it is possible to break away from the head of state. Democratic Party leaders are also carefully observing trends in Georgia, where the charismatic Jon Ossoff won a seat in 2021 and is seeking to keep it. The campaign also brought to the fore new profiles, such as that of Abdul el-Sayed, candidate in Michigan. Openly socialist, like New York Mayor Zohran Mamdani, his result will be analyzed by democratic leaders.
Why are some observers worried about obstacles to voting?
Many observers, including the OSCE, are concerned about obstacles to voting during these midterms. The first issue is that of “gerrymandering”, the partisan redistribution of electoral districts. Although it is not new in the United States, it has greatly accelerated. In the summer of 2025, Donald Trump pushed Texas Republicans to redraw their districts mid-term to gain Republicans seats in the House of Representatives. Enough to trigger a “redistricting” war between several Democratic and conservative states.
In June, Reuters estimated that the new maps gave Republicans a potential additional advantage of 16 seats, compared to six for Democrats. A state of affairs which could, however, “provoke a backlash” from voters, who could “mobilize even harder” to counter these projections, warns Hans Noel.
Donald Trump is also at war against postal voting, which he believes to be at the origin of his defeat against Joe Biden in 2020, due to electoral fraud of which he has never provided proof. Several appeals were brought before the courts by his administration. During October, the Department of Justice, for example, attacked California in order to prevent the counting of postal ballots of 20,000 people suspected of not having American citizenship. Claims rejected by the Democratic state, reports Reuters.
More broadly, Ludivine Gilli is alarmed by the “risk of chaos, confusion and disruption of elections” caused by the government. “There are threats of sending federal observers from the Department of Justice or the immigration police, ICE, near the polling stations,” she notes.
What would be the consequences for Donald Trump in the event of a Democratic victory?
A success for Democrats in the House of Representatives, or even in the Senate, would greatly complicate the exercise of power by the Republican president. Congress votes on the federal budget and has several executive control tools at its disposal. A Democratic majority would also make it possible to block certain appointments of Donald Trump, starting with Supreme Court judges. Conversely, the retention of the Republicans would facilitate the implementation of its policy over the next two years.
It remains to be seen how the conservative would react to the first of these scenarios. “If the midterms are a defeat, either [the president] will contest the results (...), or he will explain that it is the Republicans who lost, and not him,” believes Ludivine Gilli. Asked Tuesday by the press whether he would respect the result of the election, Donald Trump replied: “Yes, if he is honest.” In addition, "most of the president's actions are currently carried out by decree, which does not require the approval of Congress", recalls Hans Noel. Donald Trump could therefore simply “use it even more”.
Can the results have an influence on the 2028 presidential election?
It is still too early to move forward on the 2028 presidential election, in which Donald Trump does not have the right to compete. “There is a natural pendulum effect from one election to the next,” recalls Hans Noel. “In 2024, during the last elections, everyone said: ‘Look at this big change, the Republicans dominate’; now, in 2026, we are saying the opposite.”
The scores of the different candidates will still be analyzed by the staffs of the political parties. On the Democratic side, eyes are turning towards those who claim to be democratic socialists, further to the left than the traditional party line. “If they win their elections, it will encourage this wing to run for president,” explains Hans Noel. “In the event of defeat, the party could feel the need for a more consensual candidate.”
The Republicans will carefully watch the results of those who distanced themselves from Donald Trump. Vice-President J.D. Vance could himself seek to distinguish himself from the head of state. For the moment, the latter “retains the support of his base, the Maga”, underlines Ludivine Gilli. But until when?
I haven't had time to read everything, can you summarize for me?
Midterm elections, or midterms in English, will take place on November 3 in the United States. They aim to renew the entire House of Representatives and a third of the seats in the Senate. Many other elections are also organized in parallel, notably for the post of governor.
The main issue is who will control the two houses of Congress, for the moment both with Republican majorities. The unpopularity of Donald Trump and his policies, such as the war in Iran, gives a clear advantage to Democrats, whom polls place as strong favorites for a majority in the House and in the race for that of the Senate. In the event of victory, they could exercise greater control over the decisions of the head of state, even if he would retain a certain margin of maneuver. Several duels, notably in Texas, Michigan and Georgia, weakened Republican strongholds, are being closely scrutinized. Their result will notably determine the strategy of the two parties for the next presidential election, in 2028.
