Charles Schwab Reportedly Entering Prediction Markets with S&P 500 Wagers
Quick Look
- Charles Schwab is reportedly planning to launch prediction markets for its customers, offering yes-or-no wagers on the S&P 500's performance.
- This move, in partnership with Cboe Global Market, expands into a growing sector already featuring platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket, despite ongoing regulatory scrutiny.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Charles Schwab is reportedly planning to launch prediction markets, allowing customers to wager on the S&P 500's performance. This move into a growing but scrutinized sector follows their recent expansion into spot Bitcoin and Ether trading.
Financial services giant Charles Schwab will reportedly enter the prediction markets business by offering customers wagers on the S&P 500.
According to a Friday Wall Street Journal report, Charles Schwab is planning to launch options contracts allowing users to place yes-or-no wagers on the performance of the S&P 500 stock market index. The move, expected to roll out in a matter of months as part of a partnership with Cboe Global Market, could mark the company’s first into prediction markets.
Source: Kalshi
While prediction market platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket offer a variety of event contracts based on the outcome of events, including those tied to politics, sports, weather and companies, the Charles Schwab product will reportedly only include yes-or-no bets on whether the S&P 500 closes above or below a target price. Cryptocurrency exchanges like Coinbase have also moved closer to prediction offerings with many projecting the market will reach $1 trillion in annual volume by 2030.
In May, Charles Schwab announced the launch of spot Bitcoin and Ether trading for retail clients, marking the company’s move deeper into digital asset services. The company reported a net income of $2.5 billion for the first quarter of 2026.
Related: Republican lawmaker proposes prediction markets insider trading ban, not including White House officials
Both Polymarket and Kalshi already offer similar event contracts related to predictions on the S&P 500.
Prediction markets are still under scrutiny by lawmakers
Although the market continues to grow, many state-level authorities and members of US Congress are calling for oversight of platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket. In addition to the potential for elected officials to profit from using nonpublic information on the platforms, many state gaming authorities have challenged their ability to offer event contracts related to sports.
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) under Chair Michael Selig has taken the position that event contracts on prediction markets qualify as “swaps” and the agency has exclusive jurisdiction for regulation and enforcement. Many of the cases connected to Kalshi, Polymarket, the CFTC, and state authorities continue to be litigated.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Charles Schwab's prediction market product will launch within months.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- What specific regulatory hurdles will Schwab face?
- How will this impact existing prediction market platforms?
- Will Schwab expand beyond S&P 500 wagers?
