China's Domestic Tourism Market Weakens Amid Broader Economic Slowdown

China's domestic tourism market is weakening faster than expected, clouding one of the few bright spots in the country's sluggish consumer economy.

Hilton China said last week it now expects revenue per available room (RevPAR) to fall by low single digits this year, worse than expectations earlier this year for a flat performance. The hotel group's RevPAR swung from 1.3% growth in the first quarter, to a 2.2% fall in the second quarter.

"The China economy is sputtering, and I mean it's growing, but not consistent with what prior growth rates have been," Christopher Nassetta, President and CEO of Hilton, said in the group's earnings call on Tuesday, according to a FactSet transcript.

A weekend night in August at a Hilton resort in Dali, Yunnan province, popular with domestic Chinese tourists, runs at $173. But other options recommended on travel booking site Trip.com are less than half the price, with one around $50.

Across China, hotel RevPAR has tumbled 6% year-on-year through late July, following a 1% drop in June, according to Smith Travel Research data cited by Goldman Sachs on Tuesday. That's after RevPAR rose mildly this spring, the data showed.

A three percentage point drop in occupancy along with a 1% decline in average daily rates versus a year ago dragged down revenue, the Goldman report indicated.

The downturn reflects how China's post-Covid tourism boom is fading after three years, amid a broader slowdown in the economy and retail sales.

Gary Ng, senior economist at Natixis, noted that there has been a "sharp decline of per-capita spending" on tourism since the third quarter of 2023.

"While tourism is still a bright spot, [it] cannot escape this broad macro trend," he said, adding that consumers in China increasingly seek more unique or premium experiences, amid slower wage growth.

While sentiment towards the domestic tourism market remains dim, inbound travel is emerging as a source of hope for the industry.

Thanks to China's policy of allowing in travelers visa free from a growing number of countries, including in Europe, visitors from economies with far higher per capita income than China's are coming.

Upscale U.S. hotel operator Hyatt on Thursday reported an 18% increase in U.S. visitors into China, and 24% from Europe in the past quarter.

This premium end of the market offers a far brighter picture than the rest of the industry.

"China luxury properties were up 11% this past quarter in China. Lot of it's leisure. So China is on fire," Mark Hoplamazian, Hyatt president and CEO, said on the earnings call, according to a FactSet transcript.

Hyatt's Greater China RevPAR rose 7.2% year-on-year in the second quarter, as Hoplamazian cited "leisure luxury" as a key driver.

Inbound travelers offer modest support for China's tourism market. Overseas visitors account for 12% to 13% of total tourism spending, according to Natixis estimates.