China’s monthly imports grow at fastest pace in five years as surplus crosses $1 trillion in 2026

China's exports and imports surged more than expected in October, while its surplus shrank sharply, undershooting expectations even as it crossed $1 trillion for the year so far.

Goods exports soared by 35.2% last month from a year earlier, according to the official data released Tuesday, exceeding expectations for a 33.5% jump in a Reuters poll, but slowing from the 36.3% growth in September.

Imports climbed by 41.6% last month, customs data showed, jumping from 31% in September and sharply beating estimates for a 32% rise by analysts polled by Reuters.

The growth in imports — the strongest since May 2021 — was mainly driven by demand for tech-related goods, critical minerals such as copper, and energy supplies, including liquefied natural gas, oil and coal, said Tianchen Xu, senior economist at Economist Intelligence Unit.

Imports of high-tech products surged 72% in terms of value in October from a year ago, according to CNBC's calculations of the official figures. Imports of crude oil, LNG and coal grew about 41%, 50% and 60%, respectively, by value.

The monthly surplus dropped to $105.3 billion in October, the lowest level since April, according to LSEG data, with the year-to-date figure at $1.04 trillion, compared with a record $1.2 trillion for the full year 2025. Calls from trading partners have grown louder for Beijing to boost domestic demand and balance its economy.

The strength in exports has allowed policymakers to continue relying on moderate policy support to meet the country's annual growth target of 4.5%-5%. Household consumption has remained soft, with retail sales growing a modest 1.1% in September, underscoring the imbalance in the world's second-largest economy.

Much of the surge in exports reflects robust demand for its chips and other artificial intelligence-related hardware. But any slowdown in the global AI buildout risks denting the momentum and squeezing Chinese exporters' margins.

"Momentum looks to have slowed," said Nguyen Hoang Nam, China economist at Capital Economics, estimating a seasonally adjusted 2% month-on-month fall in exports.

A separate survey by China Beige Book showed new domestic and export orders for goods slowed in October compared to a year earlier. Factory activity also unexpectedly shrank last month, according to official PMI data, as overseas orders cooled. "The stronger side of the economy got weaker," the New York-headquartered research firm said in a note on Oct. 30.

China's exports to the U.S. soared 32.9% in terms of value from a year earlier, while imports grew nearly 35%, making a surplus of $32.7 billion. The U.S.-bound shipment grew 12.1% this year as of October, partly thanks to last year's low base when shipments plunged 20% on dramatic tariff hikes.

Washington and Beijing agreed in September to extend a broader trade truce by two months to January, along with a slew of other trade measures, including export-control waivers for certain critical minerals and special port fees for each other's vessels.

Chinese President Xi Jinping and President Donald Trump are expected to meet for a third time this year at the APEC leaders' summit in Shenzhen, China next week.

The European Union also reached an agreement with Beijing last month to limit the imports of Chinese hybrid vehicles over the next few years, as part of the effort to reduce its trade deficit with Beijing. China's shipments to the bloc grew 24.4% while imports dropped more than 4% in October, widening the surplus to $33.4 billion.

But the auto import curbs, taking effect on Dec.1, would barely contain China's export boom, according to analysts.

The cap of 350,000 imported cars per year is above the 300,000 hybrids that China exported to Europe last year, though well below the 800,000 units in annualized pace over the last three months, according to Brad Setser, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

"Europe still is a long way from a coherent trade and industrial policy with respect to autos, let alone a coherent economic policy towards overall trade with China," said Setser, a former U.S. Treasury official who specializes in global trade and capital flows.