China's economy continues to rely heavily on exports. The People's Republic's trade surplus had already exceeded the $1 trillion mark by October this year. According to the Chinese customs authority, it amounted to around 1.04 trillion dollars. This means that China could once again surpass last year's record value of $1.2 trillion.
Both exports and imports rose more strongly in October than analysts had expected. Exports rose by 35.2 percent in the month compared to the same month last year, and imports rose by 41.6 percent. Despite the strong import growth, there remained a trade surplus of around $105 billion.
AI boom drives demand for Chinese products
An important factor for the high export figures is the increasing global demand for products related to artificial intelligence (AI). The expansion of corresponding technologies requires numerous electronic components and other technological goods, which China produces in large quantities.
The People's Republic's imports also increased significantly. This was particularly due to higher prices for raw materials such as oil. In addition, imports of high-tech products increased. This suggests that China is continuing to make significant investments in international technology competition, wrote ING analyst Lynn Song.
More Chinese goods on the German market
Growing exports are likely to put increasing pressure on China's trading partners. The development in trade with Germany and the European Union is particularly clear: In October, China exported 33.5 percent more goods to Germany and 24.4 percent more to the EU than in the same month last year. At the same time, imports from Germany fell by 2.6 percent and from the EU by 4.2 percent.
This is making the competitive situation more intense for German companies that produce in China and supply other markets from there. The Foreign Chamber of Commerce (AHK) points this out. "At the same time, it opens up opportunities for them, for example if they support Chinese companies in their international expansion as technology, product or service partners," said the head of the AHK in East China, Michael Kern.
Trade with the USA is growing despite the tariff dispute
Trade between China and the USA is developing differently. Exports to the United States rose by 32.9 percent in October, and imports from the USA rose by 35 percent. The world's two largest economies have currently temporarily suspended their trade conflict. Next week, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping could meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit in Shenzhen, southern China.
However, the conflict is not completely resolved. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng in a telephone call to keep existing trade commitments. This involves, among other things, the delivery of rare earths. According to media reports, China has not yet delivered the agreed quantities to the USA.
Chinese car manufacturers are pushing into Europe
Meanwhile, the automotive industry is also contributing to China's export growth. While sales on the domestic market are weakening, Chinese manufacturers are selling more and more vehicles abroad. According to the Chinese Passenger Car Association CPCA, car exports rose by 68.2 percent in October compared to the same month last year.
The growth was particularly strong in so-called new energy vehicles. This includes both electric cars and hybrid vehicles. Their exports increased by 144.7 percent.
The EU is therefore discussing further protective measures for the domestic industry. Brussels wants to prevent certain sectors from coming under pressure from particularly cheap imports from China. At the beginning of October, both sides agreed to limit the import of Chinese hybrid vehicles. However, the regulation is not yet in force. Manufacturers could therefore try to export as many vehicles as possible to Europe before it comes into force.
Weak consumption is weighing on China's economy
The strong export orientation is also a reaction to the ongoing economic problems at home. The Communist Party has set an economic growth rate of between 4.5 and five percent for 2026. Demand from abroad plays an important role.
Private consumption in China, on the other hand, remains weak. The real estate crisis that has been going on for years is putting a strain on the confidence of many households because real estate has lost value. Added to this is the high level of youth unemployment: in September it was 18 percent among 16 to 24 year olds.
The concern that AI could replace jobs in the future is also weighing on the prospects of young career starters in particular. Consumer prices rose by 0.7 percent year-on-year in October, which was less than expected. However, experts believe that years of deflationary pressure in China have not been completely overcome. Higher energy prices could currently only mask the development.
