China grew 4.5 percent in the third quarter

According to data published by the National Bureau of Statistics (UIB), China's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increased by 4.5 percent in the July-September 2026 period compared to the same period last year.

Growth in the 9 months of the year reached 4.6 percent, in line with the government's target of "4.5 to 5 percent" for this year.

UIB Deputy Director Mao Shingyong stated that the economic performance in the first three quarters provided a good basis for achieving the annual growth target, and pointed out that the burden on industries such as oil and coal, which felt the pressure of international price increases in the second quarter, eased in the third quarter.

Pointing out that external conditions are still complex and fragile and domestic demand is weak, Mao emphasized that the basis of economic growth should be further strengthened.

The Chinese economy grew by 5 percent in the first quarter and 4.3 percent in the second quarter.

GDP increased by 4.5 percent in the 4th quarter of 2025 and 5 percent throughout the year. In response to the loss of momentum in growth, the government changed its annual growth target, which was set at "around 5 percent" in the previous 3 years, to "4.5 to 5 percent."

INVESTMENTS DECREASED

According to the September economic data published by UIB, production and consumption indicators showed a relative increase compared to the previous month, while the decline in investments continued. Industrial production, which calculates the production output of industrial enterprises with an annual turnover of over 20 million yuan (about 2.99 million dollars), increased by 5.5 percent on an annual basis in September, exceeding the 5.2 percent increase in August.

Retail sales, which are considered a measure of consumption, increased by 1.1 percent on an annual basis in September, exceeding the 0.7 percent increase in August.

Fixed capital investments, which include infrastructure, real estate, machinery and equipment expenditures, decreased by 7.2 percent in 9 months.

The decline in the real estate sector, which has negatively affected fixed capital investments with its decline in the last 3 years, continued in all three quarters of this year. Real estate investments decreased by 20.6 percent in 9 months compared to the same period last year.

The general unemployment rate in cities, which was 5.3 percent at the end of August, decreased by 0.1 point to 5.2 percent in September.

Due to the US and Israel's attacks on Iran and Iran's retaliation and the escalating conflict in the Persian Gulf, ship traffic in the Strait of Hormuz, which is a critical transit line for global goods and energy trade, was largely cut off.

The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the hydrocarbon resources of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Kuwait, Qatar, Iraq and Iran to world markets, is the main route for approximately 25 percent of world oil trade, approximately 20 percent of liquefied natural gas trade and approximately 30 percent of fertilizer trade.

Approximately 45 percent of the oil and 30 percent of the liquefied natural gas imported by China reach the country through the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruptions in tanker traffic in the Bosphorus cause disruptions in global oil supply and fluctuations in oil prices.