Ciro Gomes and Elmano de Freitas lead a fierce dispute for the Government of Ceará in the 2026 elections

This Sunday (4), 6,998,494 voters from Ceará are called to the polls to choose the next governor of Ceará. This year's election in the state has an early second round atmosphere: electoral polls have shown a tight scenario between Ciro Gomes (PSDB) and Elmano de Freitas (PT), with no greater space for the other competitors.

The two ran a campaign marked by discussions about public security, health and job creation, in which the names of Lula and Bolsonaro were frequently invoked — whether for praise or criticism.

The themes were repeated in the various debates held in Ceará: there were seven with candidates for governor, of which Ciro and Elmano attended six. The last one was held on Tuesday (29) by TV Verdes Mares.

Ciro and Elmano, in fact, were the only candidates invited in six of the seven debates held in the state. For political scientist Clayton Monte, the two candidacies concentrated attention and should also concentrate voting intentions because they proved to be the most competitive.

"The name of the government, seeking re-election, Elmano de Freitas, with a wide range of alliances, with the support of the federal government, with the support of almost 180 city halls, with the support of the majority of deputies. And an equally powerful opposition front, with the presence of nationally prominent parties and, of course, with the competitive name, which belongs to the former minister and former governor Ciro Gomes", he assesses.

Elmano is running in the election with a broad coalition — the largest among candidates for governor in Brazil —, formed by thirteen parties from the center to the left. He launched a campaign based on alignment with the federal government and alliance with President Lula (PT) and on good results in other areas, such as education.

Ciro, in turn, formed a coalition that, in total, brings together seven parties, ranging from the center to the right, including the PL. Throughout the campaign, he focused criticism on public security - an issue that most concerns Ceará residents -, public health management and what he called the “deindustrialization” of the state.

From the beginning and until the end, Elmano's campaign used Ciro's alliance with the PL to associate him with Bolsonarism, while Ciro's campaign avoided entering into national issues, redirecting the debate to local issues.

Mariana Dionísio, PhD in Political Science from the Federal University of Pernambuco (UFPE), highlights that the campaign, in general, revolved around whether or not the political group would remain in power, started in 2006 by Cid Gomes (PSB) and today represented by Elmano.

The campaign was also marked by the legal clash surrounding the União Progressista Federation, formed by União Brasil and the PP, whose support was sought by Elmano's coalition, but ended in Ciro's coalition.

The leaders of the parties that make up the federation opted for the PT member, while the federation leadership closed its support for the tucano – the fight reached the Superior Electoral Court (TSE), with the latest moves taking place four days before the election.

Safety first

Public security was the major theme of the electoral campaign in Ceará, according to the two political scientists interviewed by g1. In the Quaest surveys commissioned by TV Verdes Mares, 54% of Ceará voters said this was their biggest concern.

Ciro used much of the time to highlight the high homicide rates that the state had recorded until recently and promised a new approach to public security, with reinforcement in the police intelligence sector and an increase in the presence of delegates in municipalities.

In his campaign material, Elmano tried to highlight the recent reduction in violence rates in Ceará and promised strong investments in the area, with the hiring of new police officers, the construction of prisons and a new model for combating criminal organizations in the communities.

"The centrality of security was legitimate because the population has really felt the effects of insecurity and domination by a parallel power. The growth of violence is felt directly, it leads the opinion polls, and it is natural for candidates to compete on this issue", ponders Mariana Dionísio.

The political scientist, however, highlighted that the centrality in security came at the cost of discussing other topics, which remained in the background, such as health, education, employment and infrastructure. “These issues appeared, but generally as a management counterpoint, not as a public policy debate”, he assesses.

Lula x Bolsonaro

Throughout his campaign, Elmano cited several benefits of having a governor from the same party as the President of the Republic. The alliance with Lula was one of Elmano's campaign themes. The president came to Ceará four times between July and September. His image is a constant in the campaign material of the governor running for re-election.

In yet another effort to nationalize the state election, the PT campaign started to broadcast several pieces in which it associates Ciro with Bolsonaro. The situation was taken to the Electoral Court, which condemned the PT campaign to waste advertising time.

Despite having the support of the PL in Ceará, throughout the campaign, Ciro did not use the image of any Bolsonaro, be it Flávio or Jair, nor did he declare support for the PL candidate in the presidential contest. Flávio was in Fortaleza once during the campaign, but the two did not have any commitments together.

Ciro even mentioned Lula in some of his official advertisements, highlighting the period in which he was Lula's minister of National Integration and president of Transnordestina, during Dilma's government. On another front, he has stated several times that he believes that a governor must be independent and know how to work with any president.

Political scientist Cleyton Monte believes that the PT strategy had some effects, since in the latest polls Elmano reached a technical tie with Ciro, after a start to the campaign in which the toucan appeared with a numerical advantage.

"A large part of the Ceará electorate supports President Lula. So, Ciro Gomes's main strategy was to try to focus on the demands of the State and, as he himself said, leave the national articulations to the presidential candidates. So, he tried as much as possible to move away from this controversy of the nationalization of the campaign, but I think that, yes, the nationalization of the campaign was strong here in Ceará", says the researcher.

Second round atmosphere and ‘silent’ campaign

The Quaest and Datafolha polls for governor, released on September 23 and 25, show Elmano and Ciro technically tied, both with more than 40% of voting intentions. Throughout the campaign, no other candidate exceeded even 5% of the intended votes.

The tension between the PT and the Tucano gave the state dispute the air of an early second round, with the election expected to be decided in the first round.

"The most likely scenario, based on the available data from voting intention surveys released so far, is a dispute very close to the limit, and any projection requires caution", ponders Mariana Dionísio, political scientist.

"There is always the factor of what could happen the day before, and anything can happen. Furthermore, the calculation of valid votes excludes blank and invalid votes, and as the decision is made on this basis, the behavior of undecided voters and abstentions, which is not accounted for by the polls, can shift the result by small margins", he states.

Cleyton Monte believes that there is a great possibility that the election in Ceará will be decided in the first round, since “no other candidate has managed to grow”, but highlighted that it is difficult to measure voters' mood due to what he called a 'silent campaign'.

"What does a silent campaign mean? A large part of the population has not embarked on the issue of car stickers, flags, mainly due to the climate of political polarization. And the consequences of even acts of violence as a result of this. And, therefore, it is very difficult, even when we have more silent campaigns, it is very difficult even for the work of research institutes. So, it is a very unpredictable climate, there is no way to nail it", he concludes.