When the College Football Playoff rankings were released on Tuesday, Notre Dame was one of the biggest losers in the field. The Fighting Irish sit at No. 11 with only one loss against No. 9 BYU, but without quality wins to their name.
One year after finishing as the first team out of the College Football Playoff, the Fighting Irish are firmly on the bubble. Notre Dame projects as the last team in and can't afford any more slip-ups.
Now, a Saturday matchup against No. 1 Miami becomes a must-win game. And more importantly, it marks the most important game of quarterback CJ Carr's career.
Carr has been one of the steadiest quarterbacks in college football, completing 67% of his passes with an 18-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His 82.7 QBR is eighth-best in college football, adjusted for competition. But in the Fighting Irish's lone quality matchup against the Cougars, Carr was lackluster.
The junior completed only 55% of his passes -- 27-for-49 -- the lowest completion percentage of his career on the most pass attempts in his career. There was a stretch in the second and third quarters that he hit only 7 of 17 passes, which BYU used to build a double-digit lead in Provo.
BYU has one of the best passing defenses in college football, holding opponents to 5.5 yards per attempt, the second-best mark in the sport. And it's a concerning trend for Notre Dame's highest-profile quarterback in decades.
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Struggles vs. ranked teams
Notre Dame has breezed through largely manageable competition the past two years with Carr playing efficient football. The Fighting Irish are a combined 17-3 over the past two seasons. But when they play against the best, Carr hasn't looked the part of a first-round pick.
Carr completes only 61% of his passes against ranked opponents and hits 6.6 yards per attempt. In unranked games, he's sitting at 69% completion and 10.0 yards per attempt. Of course, every quarterback takes a step back against tougher competition. But for Carr, the gap in production is stunning.
GamesCompletion%YPGYPATDINT
vs. ranked
5
60.9%
224.6
6.6
6
5
vs. unranked
15
69.4%
231.1
10.0
36
2
In games against unranked competition, Carr averages a modest 23.1 attempts per game. Notre Dame can easily lean on its running game and pull away. But in the games against ranked competition, that number jumps to 33 attempts per game, and Carr's efficiency slips dramatically.
Granted, Notre Dame has other issues on offense that were exposed in Provo. The junior completed only 30% of his passes of more than 10 yards downfield and was completely outplayed by dual-threat quarterback Bear Bachmeier. The Fighting Irish receivers also struggled to create space against BYU's star defensive backs.
It brings up the question: Is Carr ready to compete against elite competition at the NFL level? His early games against elite teams make the answer murky.
Big opportunity ahead
By the rankings, No. 1 Miami is the best team Carr has faced in his career. But while the Hurricanes are the undisputed top team in the nation, the Hurricanes present a big opportunity for the Notre Dame passing game.
Miami is absolutely stacked on offense and boasts the No. 1 rushing defense in college football. Against the pass, though, they've been gettable.
The Hurricanes rank No. 122 nationally in passing defense, giving up 251.9 yards per game. With a pass rush that took a step back compared to last season, a young secondary is getting exposed.
Of course, Miami's low ranking is impacted by the great rushing defense. Teams are throwing the ball with great regularity against them since running the ball is a non-starter. But even accounting for volume, Miami's passing defense has some issues, specifically, as they rank middle of the pack at 7.1 yards allowed per attempt.
Last week, North Carolina's Billy Edwards Jr. completed 82% of his passes for 341 yards, four touchdowns and 10.0 yards per attempt. All of those marks were season highs. Florida State also got 298 yards and four touchdowns in a double-overtime loss to the Hurricanes. Pittsburgh quarterbacks Holden Geriner and Corey Dailey combined for 334 yards and two touchdowns.
Statistically, this is one of the worst passing defenses Carr has played in his career. But with the run defense to match, the game will be on Carr's arm more than perhaps any before.
Carr is rated the No. 10 overall player in the CBS Sports NFL Draft Prospect Rankings. He could become the first Notre Dame first-round quarterback since Brady Quinn in 2007, and the first top-10 pick at the position since Rick Mirer in 1993.
But still, Carr was 0-2 against the two College Football Playoff teams he played last season, and 0-1 against the projected CFP participant BYU. With a less talented roster, Notre Dame won three CFP games to play for a national title just two years ago.
This is the moment where Carr needs to prove he can elevate an offense. In addition to Notre Dame's season, his NFL future could take a big hit.
