A worker drinks water while working on a construction site in intense heat, in Boulogne-Billancourt, on the outskirts of Paris, on June 24, 2026. — Photo: Christophe Ena/AP
Different parts of the planet are already recording temperatures very close to those expected when the global average reaches 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels, according to a study published in the scientific journal "Nature Climate Change" this Monday (06).
The research analyzed 46 areas used as references by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), distributed across all continents.
By 2025, these areas had already recorded between 90% and 94% of the temperature increase expected when the global average reaches 1.5°C above the period from 1850 to 1900.
For a 2°C scenario, between 65% and 76% of the projected increase has already occurred.
This does not mean, however, that the planet has already permanently exceeded the 1.5°C limit established in the Paris Agreement.
The researchers estimate that the global average increase caused by external factors will reach around 1.4°C in 2025.
In the scenario used in the analysis, the 1.5°C mark would be reached around 2029.
The result indicates, however, that, considering the margins of uncertainty, the conditions currently recorded in the areas analyzed are already statistically indistinguishable from those expected when the global average reaches 1.5°C.
“In practice, all regions of the world are already experiencing a level of warming similar to that expected in a world 1.5°C warmer compared to the pre-industrial period,” Francis Zwiers, one of the study’s authors and scientist emeritus at the University of Victoria, in Canada, tells g1.
"This means that 1.5°C warming is no longer just a future possibility: it is already part of our current climate."
In addition to this, the increase in temperature does not occur in the same way everywhere. In the research, the highest elevations were identified in the northernmost areas of the planet.
In the Russian Arctic, the increase attributed to external factors reached around 3.3°C compared to the pre-industrial period. In the northeast of North America, it was 2.6°C, and in the northwest, 2.4°C.
In South America, estimates varied. The northeast of the continent recorded an increase of around 1.4°C, and the northern region, 1.3°C. In the southwest and in the extreme south, where the influence of the ocean is greater, values were below 1°C.
In the case of Brazil, the study does not present a single number for the entire country, as the analysis follows the climate divisions used by the IPCC, which do not necessarily coincide with national borders and separate the Brazilian territory into different areas.
But in regions covering parts of the country, estimated warming between 2016 and 2025, compared with 1850–1900, was between 1.1°C and 1.4°C.
The highest increase appears in the region called Northeast of South America by the IPCC, with 1.4°C. In the South American Monsoon area, which covers much of the interior of the continent, the estimate was 1.3°C.
“All four regions that include parts of Brazil have already warmed to levels close to those expected in a 1.5°C warmer world,” says Zwiers.
According to him, the differences within the country occur because “interior areas generally heat up more than coastal regions, where the Atlantic Ocean moderates the increase in temperatures”.
In the Southeast region of South America, which includes part of southern Brazil and neighboring countries, the estimated increase was 1.1°C.
In the study, the researchers also analyzed what is behind this increase and concluded that human influence explains practically the entire increase recorded in different areas.
Greenhouse gases were the main factor in rising temperatures. Other effects caused by human activities, mainly pollution particles present in the atmosphere, partially offset this increase in some places.
To arrive at the results, the team combined historical temperature records with simulations from different climate models. The methodology allowed estimates to be made even in places where there is little old data, such as parts of Africa, South America and the polar regions.
According to the authors, the results reinforce that preparation for the impacts of climate change should not only consider projections for the coming decades.
In many areas, conditions associated with a 1.5°C warmer planet are already very close to those currently observed, in a context of impacts such as heat waves, floods and melting glaciers.
“Climate projections for the coming decades need to be adjusted to this new reality of rising temperatures”, says Jorge Olcina, professor of Regional Geographic Analysis at the University of Alicante, in a comment published by Science Media Center España (SMC España).
The researchers emphasize, however, that the estimates depend on the set of climate models available and may not represent all possible responses of the climate system.
“Regions need to prepare now for a 1.5°C warmer world, rather than treating it as a distant future,” says Zwiers. “We need to act now to adapt to the climate we are already living in and also expect more warming to come.”
