Climate, October 2026 the hottest month ever recorded in the EU: Copernicus data

October 2026 was, globally, the warmest October on record, with an average temperature 1.75 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial level (1850-1900). This was announced by the EU weather service, Copernicus.

This is the third consecutive month to exceed the 1.5 degree threshold. It is practically certain that the average global temperature in 2026 will exceed the pre-industrial level by more than 1.5 degrees, exceeding the most ambitious limit set by the Paris Climate Agreement. With a projected range of 1.56 degrees to 1.61, 2026 would become the second calendar year, after 2024, to exceed the 1.5 degree threshold.

The data

Among the Copernicus forecasts, it is also expected that the average global temperature for the four-year period 2023-2026 will exceed pre-industrial levels by more than 1.5°C. In October, sea surface temperatures remained at exceptionally high levels. Outside the polar regions, the average sea surface temperature reached 20.95°C, the highest value ever recorded for the month of October, surpassing the previous record set in October 2023.

In the tropical Pacific, where El Niño conditions continued to intensify, the monthly sea surface temperature anomaly in the Niño 3.4 region reached an all-time high of 3.21°C, exceeding peaks observed during previous strong El Niño episodes.

Unlike what happened in September and during much of the summer, temperatures recorded the most significant deviations from the average in Eastern Europe and Scandinavia, while in much of Western and Central Europe the positive thermal anomalies were more contained.

Exceptionally low river flows persisted in much of central and eastern Europe, affecting the Rhine, Danube and Vistula. In some areas of Western Europe, however, river flows have recovered, thanks to an easing of drought conditions in October compared to September.

Heavy rainfall and flooding hit several countries, including the United Kingdom, Ireland, Spain, Greece and Turkey.