Tuesday's college basketball slate is one of the best of the nonconference portion of the season. It all begins with the No. 1 team in the country (Florida) going on the road to face in-state foe Florida State. The Gators are coming off an impressive win over another in-state opponent, Miami, last week, while FSU is off to a 2-0 start.
That game is one of many on the schedule that will make it must-watch TV. The Champions Classic features a marquee doubleheader: No. 5 Michigan State vs. No. 2 Duke, followed by No. 15 Kansas vs. No. 24 Kentucky, in one of the final games of the night.
Between games in Chicago, No. 3 Illinois will travel to Lubbock, Texas, for a very intriguing showdown against No. 16 Texas Tech. The Fighting Illini are still without preseason All-American forward David Mirković due to injury, but veteran forward Andrej Stojaković has stepped up in his absence. Stojaković has scored 45 points in just 24 minutes played this season.
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Memphis will look to play spoiler when it faces No. 22 Vanderbilt in Nashville. The Tigers opened up the season with an impressive win over Iowa State despite being a double-digit underdog. Memphis received the most votes in this week's AP Top 25 poll among teams that weren't ranked.
Ahead of what should be a fun night of hoops, here are predictions with analysis of Tuesday's college basketball slate.
All times ET
No. 1 Florida at Florida State
6 p.m. on ESPN2, fuboTV (try for free): The matchup I was following closely during Florida's opening night showdown against Miami was one in the frontcourt. Miami is one of the few teams with the talent to match up against Florida's frontcourt. Still, Florida overwhelmed Miami and won that game by double digits despite playing a C+ game.
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Can Florida State's freshman star center Marcis Ponder contain Florida's frontline? We will see. If this game were played at a neutral site, I would lean heavily toward Florida. But it's not. Florida State's home gym is going to be rocking. Is FSU going to win this game against the best team in college basketball? Probably not. But FSU should be able to keep this game close and cover. Pick: Florida State +10 -- Cameron Salerno
No. 2 Duke vs. No. 5 Michigan State
7 p.m. on ESPN, fuboTV (try for free): Duke has the advantage in the frontcourt and off the bench. That's going to be the difference in this game. It's going to take a very big game from Fears for Michigan State to win this one. This will be the first of many tests Duke faces and passes throughout the season. It wouldn't surprise me if Duke won this game by double digits. That's how much I love Duke's depth. They can go 10-deep every game and wear teams out with fresh players coming off the bench. Pick: Duke -6.5 -- CS
No. 3 Illinois at No. 16 Texas Tech
8 p.m. on Peacock. Illinois is without All-American hopeful David Mirkovic and sniper wing Jake Davis. Texas Tech is without All-American forward JT Toppin, but 5-in-5 senior Jamichael Stillwell is cleared to make his return after a Lubbock judge granted him a temporary restraining order.
These teams aren't themselves yet from a personnel front, but they've both shown glimpses of fire-breathing offenses. Texas Tech has guards for days, and point-of-attack defense is going to be a question for Illinois. If you can't guard the ball against Texas Tech, that just opens up space for snipers like Donovan Atwell (130 3s at 46%) to get clear. Illinois will do its best to stay attached to shooters and force Texas Tech to hit a million pull-up jumpers, but the Illini's defensive warts and inability to rebound consistently were on full display against Cincinnati and Baylor in the preseason.
Illinois' best defense is an offense that makes you take it out of the net over and over. The Illini are playing with zoom-zoom pace. They are running for all 40 minutes. Pick-and-rolls are out. It's find the mismatch and go to work with expert spacing, tons of cutting and even more offensive rebounding. Five-star freshman Quentin Coleman (85% on 2s) and senior wing Andrej Stojakovic (68% on 2s) have had ludicrous starts to the season. When Texas Tech big man Bassala Bagayoko is not on the floor, Illinois may be in line for a layup line against an awfully small Texas Tech short-handed frontcourt.
Illinois has numerous pathways to create good shots against this smaller Texas Tech team, but it also is relying on a ton of freshmen right now. Coleman, Ethan Brown, Lincoln Williams and Lucas Morillo are all firmly in the rotation while Davis and Mirkovic heal up. Illinois is the bigger and better team long-term, but Texas Tech's veterans could have a field day if this young Illinois team doesn't communicate at a high enough level defensively in its first real test in an extremely hostile spot. This is Texas Tech or nothing for me, especially with Stillwell back in the fold. Pick: Texas Tech +1.5 -- Isaac Trotter
Memphis at No. 22 Vanderbilt
7:15 p.m. on SEC Network+, fuboTV (try for free): Memphis' 2-0 start has been an awesome story, and now it gets Vanderbilt. Buckle up. This could be the toughest test of the season. Vanderbilt is up to No. 7 on KenPom after obliterating Bellarmine and Wake Forest. Vanderbilt's defense has a chance to be elite this year. It defends without fouling. It has the personnel to protect the rim this year, and also blanket the 3-point stripe. Chandler Bing, Tyler Tanner and TO Barrett are three plus defenders who will be draped all over Memphis' red-hot point guard Jayden Reid.
If Memphis is going to win this one, it better be someone else because Reid is in for a long night. This is the game Memphis really misses star big man Nemanja Popovic, who is out for the next four games. I just don't know how they score efficiently. Vanderbilt has so many dudes for Reid. It has big forwards like Sebastian Williams-Adams or Berke Buyuktuncel for Tylik 'Bully' Weeks' bully-ball game. Memphis will be a popular bet this week, but it's all Vandy in this spot. It has a ton of advantages here. Pick: Vanderbilt -15 -- IT
No. 15 Kansas vs. No. 24 Kentucky
9:30 p.m. on ESPN, fuboTV (try for free): Kansas' full team had only been practicing together for only three (!) weeks. Then starting guard Melvin Council Jr. broke his foot Monday, forcing Bill Self to recalibrate again. Kansas has the more talented roster on paper, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are still some kinks to iron out that weren't exposed in romps over solid mid-majors like Fordham and Middle Tennessee. Is Kentucky good enough to press those hot spots? Maybe. Kentucky's 3-point shooting is the path to popping the upset. Kansas does not profile as a high-volume 3-point shooting team with Trey Kaufman-Renn, Tre White, Tyran Stokes and Keanu Dawes on the floor together. On the other hand, Milan Momcilovic is the best shooter in the sport. If Kentucky can rebound and run, it is very capable of drilling double-digit treys. That's very rarely going to be in the range of potential outcomes for Kansas, who will rely heavily on paint points and free throws to score efficiently.
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The Council injury likely means Self will go big, sacrificing some of the pace for even more rebounding. A front line of Dawes, Stokes and Kaufman-Renn might not make many 3s, but it creates some awkward matchups for Kentucky. Can Momcilovic defend Stokes without fouling a freshman who is a foul-drawing machine? Does Kentucky ditch that idea altogether and put a bulldog veteran guard like Zoom Diallo onto Stokes, stay home on everyone else and try to bait Stokes into taking a million shots over a smaller defender? Making Stokes one-dimensional is better than allowing him to shred as a scorer and creator.
